Archive for February, 2020

The state of the race, 1 of a series

Saturday, February 22nd, 2020

I have no goddamned clue how this presidential election will churn out.  Somewhere between a Democratic landslide, or probably just short of something that could proper!y be called landslide, and a Trump landslide, or probably slightly short of landslide proper.  This is as opposed to 2016 when it became evident it was Trump as the nominee, anything between a Clinton landslide and narrow Trump triumph.  And on election night it was good on tight with the one silver lining at the result… at least we weren’t stuck with Hillary.

I’m listening to old radio broadcasts from 2007 of a prominent radio figure — a figure I consider you tick off as part and parcel to the last “old portland”.  The glib personality full and issue less political analysis I considered crap then, as you do more so from the vantage point of it being wrong an toto.  Obama’s ultimately just playing for the vice presidency and Hillary is inevitable, the screwy Republican primary is perhaps landing on the party giving up until 2012.  Or maybe the too cute analysis that 2008 will answer the question after two polarizing presidencies — are we as a country Bush People of are we Clinton People?  The answer is neither.  The mention of the odd Ron Paul supporters is interesting — “The crazy thing about them is they’re probably Democrats.”. So powerful the pull of the Iraq War as an issue, a smattering of liberal ( white men) could be pulled to a funny libertarian ideologue.  I have no idea how to parse out vote samples on whether they split three full to Stein and Johnson, Trump, and No vote as against Hillary in 2016, but it seems possible.

The thing I recall with Obama in 2007 and 2008 in his campaign was being impressed by now he moved ahead when the chips were down, at that point at the time of these radio broadcasts when Hillary was swamping him in the polls.  To put it mildly the batch of Democrats here in 2020 are the opposite.  Today we see Biden, now the ipso facto black candidate, delaying for the first time ever being imprisoned by the South African apartheid government while trying to meet with Nelson Mandella, a rewritten history for the one for “proud slave stater” that brings a whole new wrinkle to the Mandella Effect.

The travails of Elizabeth Warren, and how she ended up embarrassing herself, demands a book length analysis.  The funny thing is we are stuck with two competing concepts that refuse to deal much with the other.  From the Democratic party liberal, it falls apart when implicit sexism inherent in demanding full details of plans not demanded of Butgigieg or Sanders reared its head on health care policy shifting.  Political a analysis demands a staring of what people who are not you think they think and I have given up on such a thing.  The other analysis the wamo or newrep crews will not touch with a ten foot pole — except maybe to confirm what they buy on the sexism of the electorate in not jumping in with Elizabeth full hog — some confluence of the fight and picked with Bernie over some private statements, the refusal to shake his hand, the shipping of vetting privileges to a trans gendered teenager, and her online supporters getting hot and bothered that Bernie highlighted Joe Rogan’s support.  Actually the time I tossed her aside was when she gave a Trump like answer to a gay marriage opponent for the easy applause of the rest of the crowd.  (Yes, she may as well have been doling out the tiny hands meme.)  This pc troubles with intersectionality political analysis is skipped over by the liberal magazines, but gets good play in the comments section of American Conservative and Reason magazines.  For Warren, we seem to have passed that point found about 2011 — 2012 when the likes of In These Times and The Nation could kvetch on Warren’s rhetoric on income inequality heeding too much to a breadwinner male in job market with allowance for stay at home mom model overtones of Union nostalgia — an abandonment of inability to move to new rhetorical framing dashes the meaning of an editorial that she unlike Bernie being a one time Republican can speak a language he can’t for some segments of the electorate.

Apparently Sanders, just like McGovern and Carter, and for that matter Shirley Chrisholm weren’t too much into knocking George Wallace voters.  That, I doubt, means anything to anyone.  More politically unpalatable, this has a Dukakis question and answer on what ylu’d say if your wife was raped written all over it.
Even the Boston Marathon bomber?

interesting thought, this…. If you ponder something beyond d v r fighting… Bernie following Trump may force Congress to start doing more than that bare minimum.
Consider the haunting possibility as calls chime in wanting Bloomberg to jump out — why, he’s a carbon copy of Trump! — and spend his billions on marginal congressional races — the kind that see congress critters endorse the man seemingly for that very reason– so… Bernie wins and is met with a Democratic congress ful? Of Bloomberg clients?

Funny, huh?

Reconfiguring the 50 states

Thursday, February 20th, 2020

The various pipedreams abound from parts of states seceding, joining neighboring states.  A little different from the one of California splitting in two — the non Sacramento, San Francisco, Low Angeles state which … Staring at the vote tallies seems to me apt to be creating an even partisan 51 st state… Or that great state of Jefferson for Southern Oregon and Fresno land California…

I do have to be intrigued by the proposed swap of state / province for the American regions who can make sense of Tradeau and the Canadian regions that can make sense of Trump.

It has been some time since the dream of a split for Eastern Washington into Idaho made the rounds. I think some state rep just ran aground with the state Republican party for some disreputable agreeances with militia activists or something, which woulda included pushing for the secession. But today the hullabo goes with Eastern Oregon wanting to be part of Idaho. Changing the inflection point for the phrase “own private Idaho.”

Oddly, Virginians wanting to join West Virginia have their precedent in the Civil War creation of the state of West Virginia in the first place. If only they could have thought forward several steps from their then perch of disagreements over slavery to the future disagreements over guns, they could have avoided their current situation by siding with the West Virginia state splitters in the first place. Anyway, as the groundswell perks up in the ranting at community townhall level, it enjoys support from the influential powerbrokers of… the governor and the pastor. (Maybe this switch is a political ploy from Falwell 2 to retain influence with at least some governor?)

Noting Upstate New Yorkers trying to keep their fracking livelihoods by jumping over to Pennsylvania, I suppose not enthralled by the wind technology not yet yet driving economic activity.

But the most loathsome of the secessionist movements… apparently some Colorado residents want to get annexed into Wyoming. An aesthetic disgrace, destroying two perfect rectangles.  Personally, I want one of these two states to spit off some county lines of annex others to get us a square state… I have always been a bit peeved that Wyoming is not square.

Tulsi Gabbard’s unnecessary magnanimity

Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

There’s this bit of a head scratcher I have, on the like of Tulsi Gabbard.  If asked to publicly opine on Rush Limbaugh’s ailment, some response round about what she offered via unsolicited tweet — round about a respectful hope health comes through, politics aside — will make sense and is what I would want from anyone.  There is no reason to go out of the way with this — Limbaugh just doesn’t matter in that way.  Note the comments section of a YouTube clip for the Simpsons parody from the 1990s — where we have some youngsters chiming in on the brilliance of this… Alex Jones spoof.

Frankly anyone short of a president or a colleague in the Congress… doesn’t warrant or demand a comment from her.  Or anyone not vying for his voters..

Or is she trying that one out?

Alienating maybe her supposed coming Russia backed third party supporters?… (speculated spuriously in unrelated news headlines. Does she chime in on the Sean Hannity Show to argue for drug legalization to win a smattering of voyes in that open primary of New Hampshire seems to have faltered at that kasich double digit declare s uccess before dispersing… Or maybe she goes where invited, and damned not in the debates any more.)

Is Weld, off his triumphant spiking of a delegate in the iowa caucuses, winning the support that may otherwise slip to Gabbard? Will the backers of Andrew Yang now trend toward Vermin Supreme [front runner of the libertarian contest?)

Clever and not so clever politicking

Wednesday, February 5th, 2020

I suppose we see Trump trying a Nixon trick in “flanking to the left”, while others dither.  It is a joke, the taking of credit for the “first step act”, but oddly he may be right that “only Trump coulda  passed it.”, in that Obama should have signed it but McConnell was following the dictates of Trump’s campaign from tough on crime to the Great Kardashian diplomacy..  The Nixon part of the equation comes in the question of just how one administers that progressive legislation you’re touting— what I always suspect the true lines behind the paradox in some parcels some people let with Nixon as the ironic last liberal presidency.

On the other way, this has the feel t it of George W Bush’s sotu bromides for wind energy… Solar energy… Disconnected from any policy, or in the main so, and seemingly scrubbed from encyclopedia articles, as though just read about a thing.

In the end, it is effective politics — though I suppose out of the other side of the mouth you pivot to the American carnage line.  I began reading the speech … The first several paragraphs rewrite history to where apparently he walked in at the start of his administration to… Urm… Mad max?… And now we have paradise on earth.  It’s unreadable, and I can’t bring myself to hear down on it.    I am curious on what he says on North Korea, which in the past I’ve wanted to give him an element of praise if not for the fact he hasn’t bothered to even stumble into a policy there he seemed to… we have this summary of what he’s presented at each sotu.

Oh great… Democracy Now has a debate between a former Bush speechwriter and a Jacobin writer on the viability of Bernie Sanders.  Hilarious in the Amy Goodman selective picking of congressional validator for the position of the show, and good on Frum to mention the 70s era sexual charger underground materials which will dry up that great suburban female gap with Trump.  It gets goofy again as the Jacobin man sells Bernie as aptly selling his socialism from the rich vein of Americana a la debs and thomas, who… You know, ran for president indeed and… Tapped out at six percent.  I guess the one thing Sanders has over Elizabeth Warren — he does appear aware that he’s talking beyond the most narrow twittery of the Democratic party primary electorate.

At the moment Trump has his highest approval ratings, and the Democratic field looks damned flat.  I suppose it is a “buttigieg, ready for your close up?” Moment.

It’s kerry versus bloomberg

Tuesday, February 4th, 2020

Depending on what it is that had happened with Trump’s Superbowl tweet — great night for the state of Kansas — it could have meant something of it could have meant nothing.  It means nothing.  It is closer to Obama’s meaningless “57 states” statement than Obama supporting Trump bashers would have it — message quickly deleted, replaced with a correct one — why should one card if he does not address the flub?

On the “failure” that happened in Iowa last night — I have no real reason to see… why it matters.   More of less, a good thing to see the media contrived meaning of it torn to shreds.. It is just the first of 57 contests, afterall.  (58 if you toss in the super delegate race.)

The problem is meaning is ascribed where you want to see it.  See McConnell “and they want to run health care?”  See, hrm, the same basic headline only lightly assuaged by note takers pointing out the “fiasco of iowa is not new.

I suppose we are still set with Biden having to figure out how to survive until Super Tuesday and show enough support to not let that dissolve.  Kerry musing off record in private for evesdropping need reporters to record how he may just have to jump in the race because it’s hard to tell whether the very real plausible fear of a doomed Bernie disaster is feted by a fear he may win.  Reports circle that Hillary is seeking the vice presidency, by more high end sour rd than those speculating that the story last night in Iowa was a thinly  veiled sabotage of bernie, and I guess that’s why Buttigieg jumped the gun in declaring victory.