Archive for October, 2018

does any of it matter, in the end?

Wednesday, October 31st, 2018

Joe Donnelly, going for that Indiana minority vote:
“Our state director is Indian American, but he does an amazing job. Our director of all constituent services, she’s African American, but she does an even more incredible job than you could ever imagine. It isn’t their race or their religion, it’s the incredible person that they are.”
Some would call it a “dog whistle”, if … there was any message to the whistling.

Claire Mcaskill, differentiating herself from the “crazy” Democrats.  Random state legislator with an inflammatory facebook page.  Those people running after Ted Cruz at restaurants.  Apparently Elizabeth Warren.  Will this have the effect of ameliorating her “centrist” voting bloc to vote as against her “crazy” brethern, or remind them of what a bunch of crazies she’s running with?

The libertarian in Montana half supports, half doesn’t, the Republican running against Jon Tester, down the homestretch.  But apparently doesn’t.  Unless he did.  At any rate, the Republican touts some kind of endorsement, and the libertarian welcomes his voters to continue on voting for him.
Will he be another Stan Jones?

James O’Keefe nabbed another “red state” Democrat incumbent staffer having to assuage a liberal supporter of bonafides.  Probably disappointed in that it was the already doomed campaign of Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.  It’s all kinds of lazy, frankly — and serves to prove: the campaign volunteers of politicians are less trim sailing than their politicians.  I suppose this is the wave of the future and reciprocated in kind of some Democratic based outfit running about next time out.

Phil Bredesen’s chances hinge on whether Taylor Swift’s supporters are somewhat under-polled.  It’s hard to assuage whether he’s doing better in Tennessee than Beto O’Rourke is doing in Texas — “tightening” the headlines say on Texas…

Nevada –  In 2010, Reid trailed Republican Sharron Angle by 2.7 points in the final Real Clear Politics polling average; he won by 5.6 points. Democrats did a few points better than their polling in 2012, when Heller eked out a 1.2-point victory while Obama bested Romney by 6.7 points. And in 2016, Donald Trump had a 0.8-point lead in Nevada polling; Hillary Clinton beat him by 2.4 points.

read the news today, oboy

Saturday, October 27th, 2018

Curious enough to look up “Robert Bowers”.  Received a list of six pages on facebook

I’m afraid to log in to see if any of them lead with “Not.  That.  Robert Bowers.”

I do wonder what that’d be like when someone gains a notoriety — to have his / her name.

senators and witch-craft

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018

Arizona: Oh, the stupid controversies conjured up by a past political life.  A past association with “witches” leads to the question “… Is Kyrsten Sinema the Democrats’ Christine O’Donnell”?  (Though Sinema mainly seemed to be going for an aesthetic artistic statement with her political activism.)

These matters may or may not be sinking Krysten Sinema.  I see the flood of conservative media online declaring her dead because of this deluge of old “gaffes” from her days as a Green Party anti-war activist.  But then I see the polls… and?
Postdebate poll shows Sinema leading McSally in Arizona’s Senate race.
The best I get now is that she was ahead but within the margin of error but is now behind but within the margin of error.  There is value in banging a narrative into existence, and sometimes it is successful in politics, and also even if we have a “law of diminishing returns” where this shifts it by a point or two that may just be what you need to split the divided electorate… but as of now… that’s what we have.

And here’s something from the publication of the John Birch Society proclaiming Sinema crazy.  One of the issues they cite her for is something about claiming Bush was poisoning the water supply with arsenic.  (I daresay it was probably criticism of lax corporate friendly regulation.)  This from the John Birch Society, who… you know… fluoride.

Texas:   Y’know.  At the end of the 2008 presidential candidae — with candidate Barack Obama having more money than he knew what to do with en route to a large victory, Obama dumped money into multiplayer internet video game ads.  See too Beto O’Rourke for social media en route to… probably a loss… with more money than he knows what to do with.

Something a little odd about this odd variation of the old “stealing lawn sign” controversy

Earlier that Tuesday, the sign caught the attention of Sid Miller, the Texas agriculture commissioner. Miller, who was reportedly on President Trump’s shortlist for U.S. agriculture secretary, posted pictures of the sign on his Facebook page and claimed that the girl depicted was one of Kavanaugh’s young daughters.
“The Democrat sleaze knows NO bounds,” Miller, who’s again running for agriculture commissioner, wrote in a post that was later shared more than a thousand times.

On the “young daughter” claim … this is a put-on on his part… he knows he’s making that detail up, doesn’t he?

Tennessee:  Odd.  I thought this old issue, which popped up in a “er?” in the 2004 elections, had long been settled.

The Vanderbilt poll was much different from other recent polls, which had significantly found Blackburn with a comfortable lead. A New York Times poll conducted during the same time frame placed Blackburn 14 points ahead of Bredesen. However, critics had questioned the methodology of the NYT poll, which they say only polled voters with landlines — eliminating the younger demographic that is more likely to vote for Bredesen.

I doubt it accounts for the eleven… fourteen… fifteen… point swing in polls, though.

North Dakota:  Chuck Hagel is swinging by to save Heidi Heitkamp’s campaign.  Last resort of a desperate Democrat in the rural prairies… in 2012, Bill Clinton swung in in Obama’s stead to pump Heitkamp up.  This year… we’re moving on to the former Republican Senator of Nebraska.

Mississippi.  So

One interesting snippet from the polling, though: While Hyde-Smith is beating Espy in head-to-head polls, Espy is beating McDaniel in head-to-head polling. Marist showed the Democrat up as much as 8 points on Republican McDaniel. If the election goes to a McDaniel-Espy runoff, there’s still an off chance that Mississippi could surprise us all.

Lars Larson has endorsed McDaniel.  So we’re off to the races?

Nevada.  Or… Californevada.

Election 2018’s proxy fight is set up: Ron Paul versus Larouche

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018

Little Falls, New Jersey  Courtney Jones and Chris Sare…

Between the United States Post Office and the police station on Montclair Avenue in Little Falls, stood a sign that read “DEFEND TRUMP, STOP HERE” as two activists set up a stand displaying signs, and pamphlets alongside the town’s sidewalk encouraging pedestrians and drivers to pull over for further information on Thursday afternoon.

The Township of Little Falls has a Democratic mayor and a majority-Democrat council. Little Falls Democratic Organization Chairman Kevin Barry stated, “The Little Falls council went from a 100 percent Republican from a few years ago to a 100 percent Democratic with a Democratic mayor,” however, a small crowd gathered around the LaRouche PAC’s table Thursday to browse the group’s literature and discuss their views. “We’re going everywhere,” Sare added. “We often do post offices because they’re very public.”

I wonder, though… have they encountered this notorious anti-Trump group on their “Post Office Box” Tour?

Do you know what a Trump nomination, nay a Trump presidency, means? A massive global breakdown crisis. Nuclear war. Mass starvation. You will wish you listened.

President Trump will tear up the constitution, replacing it with the dirty playbook he learned from Roy Cohn. His ridiculous economic polities, which would put Paul Adolf Volker to shame, will lead to Weimar-style hyperinflation. You’ll be walking down the street with a wheelbarrow of greenbacks just to buy milk!

This weird anti-Trump organization even has competing signs to post on their competing table tops.  (Trump with a Hitler mustache!)

Comically, “Fight Fascism” argued on the irrelevancy of the discrepancy over old Federalist denigrating comments about FDR as opposed to the talisman worship of FDR which reached its fever pitch in the Bush era.  I suppose, if he’s still with Team Larouche, he’d be consistent in his inconsistency.

Donald Trump is literally Hitler. […] Have you ever heard of seen a video of Donald Trump that made you actually think? No!


In what may come as a surprise, or perhaps a wave of fear, to so-called political experts, Roger Stone—a long-time advisor to many Republican candidates and a friend of Donald Trump—endorsed Kesha Rogers on October 8. She is on the November 6 ballot as an Independent candidate for the 9th Congressional District in Texas against incumbent Democrat Al Green, a fanatic for the impeachment of the President.

All good and well, and we’ll wait for bated breath to see if he mentions it at, say — a South Florida Republican luncheon fundraising event.  Look — we have the “fake media” of the Washington Post listing Al Green in a story about uncontested races — and then there’s that situation in South Dakota where the Trump endorsed candidate is facing multiple attacks, one hitting him at his natural Trump loving constituency.

What will it take to have Roger Stone endorse Ron Wieczorek?


The org is touting the candidacy of Michigan US Senate candidate John James, apparently glomming onto his run against “partisanship” — a pretty standard political positioning — as aligning with their grand goal of defeating “geopolitics”.

Quick take-away at the end:

LaRouche PAC organizers present at the meeting found a wide-open response to their explanation of the global strategic stakes in the U.S. midterm elections.

As with the Martin O’Malley campaign, any goodwill to the candidate is not reciprocated in kind.

Unlike, it appears, Jeff Jones — who… I guess signed the Larouche pledge of pledges?  Don’t see that he’s running on “larouche!”, but the org did — more forthrightly than with the Senate candidate — give him their endorsement.  And we see The campaign continues…

Competing literature from his communist opponent.  (I assume the self described “socialist”, but certainly not of the “democratic socialist” variety, is who he’s referencing… and I suppose the Democratic legacy candidate is the supposed “socialist”.)

“But I met [Republican candidate] Jeff Jones while I was volunteering, and I felt I got to know him pretty well, and I thought, ‘This guy is a total idiot.’ So when I met you guys on campaign, I thought I had to come and hear from a third party candidate.”


Actually, here’s something interesting to watch in November.  Everyone remember Ron Paul?  Multiple presidential candidate and prolific pamphleteer his own self.  Well, in this 2018 mid-term, he has his own three candidates that he’s endorsed.

(1) Ryan Bundy for Nevada Governor.
(2) Chris McDaniel for Mississippi Senate
(3) Murray Sabrin for New Jersey Senate

A game we can play in November is to see how these three candidates do as against the three candidates slotted by the Larouche org (two members of the org and one signee), to see who has more juice — Ron Paul of the “Ron Paul Revolution” or Larouche of the “Larouche Slough-Fest”.


Actually… Sidney Hill of Alaska was running for Alaska’s at large bid.  Was.  Write-in bid.  Suspended his campaign, apparently.
Who’s Sidney Hill?  Don’t you remember?


Steve Bannon.  Not David Duke or Lyndon Larouche.  Noted.


A blast from the past… circa 1986
Richard Black, area coordinator for ultra-conservative former Presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche, joined the panelists. He said the United States should invest $40 billion in laser beam technology.

Note that “Richard Nixon is a Chinese agent”, which in a previous era of the org I think would’ve been a bad thing.

There are two state legislators I’m stuck paying some attention to if I’m paying attention to the larouche org.  One is Richard Black of Virginia, whose relationship with the org is as a propped up Authority to be funneled through larouche media to Russian and foreign propaganda/news outlets to sell Putin‘s and other authoritarian government’s line…

(And to get identified incorrectly as a “US Senator”).

Curious.  It’s a different Richard Black than we see round about here (even if it’s the same Mike Billington) … correct?

The other figure of note, Kentucky state Senator Perry Clark.  (See the freepers discourse on him over here.)  Who is probably useless for the org now that he’s not seeking Obama’s impeachment.  And for that matter when last I checked in, he was seeking some marijuana decriminalization measure.  Still, it’d be interesting to see if Kesha Rogers can gnab his endorsement… which would be worth something, I… guess?  Richard Black’s is apparently worthwhile, even though it did nothing for Kelli Ward.


Harley Schlanger tries to work his brand.  (The SGT Report… now on a different platform.)  Funny, as I bump about this… and a trashing of the Clinton camp as Coup leaders against the President.  Clinton, of course, in a previous era… a talisman of goodness.

ITEM NUMBER NINE:  A degree here, and a degree there, of separation, multiples, as the Larouche org and Rudy Giuliani begin hanging out with the same crowd.

Rudy Giuliani, the personal lawyer to President Donald Trump, is scheduled to speak at a conference in Armenia alongside one of the first Russian officials the U.S. sanctioned following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine.  […]

Glazyev, identified by the conference as an “adviser to the president of the Russian Federation,” has a distinct history with American far-right activists. As ThinkProgress reported earlier this year, Glazyev was once close with noted American anti-Semite Lyndon LaRouche, even going so far as to use LaRouche to translate one of Glazyev’s books into English. Glazyev was also one of the most vocal Russian officials opposing Ukrainian membership in the European Union, and reportedly helped organize protests across Ukraine in the aftermath of the 2013-14 EuroMaidan revolution.


who’s up; who’s down; who cares?

Thursday, October 18th, 2018

California:  The peculiar logic of the state’s “top two” primary.  Two Democrats are in the general election.  One is Dianne Feinstein, long a partisan foil of derision but made more so for her actions during the Kavanaugh hearings.  Running against her, to her left, is Kevin De Leon.
… who … well… the state’s Republicans may just choose to vote for the “Bernie-crat” and the “socialism” he represents.

Texas:  Saw a guy in a “Beto for Texas” t-shirt.  That would be great.  Except for the part where he’s in Oregon.  Unless, maybe, Beto O’Rourke has a different constituency in mind…

Arizona:  No duh that Kyrsten Sinema was talking about the elected politicos and not the “people”.  But does it matter in a representative democracy?  Granted, the answer lies in who you’re wanting to vote for.  She’s still acting the part of social critic– always fine lines in assuaging political movements.

As it were, Martha McSally wants you to know… Kyrsten Sinema is a TRAITOR.  The fact-checkers look into it, and see that her hypothetical flotsam of 2003… fall somewhere short of it.

Tennessee:  Somewhat interesting ad campaign from Marsha Blackburn… Trojan Horse.  It is lazy, because all we have is the free floating head of Phil Bredesen.  Maybe it’s not worth the production costs to come up with something smoother.

Things are a little weird in this senate campaign.  Two new polls are out showing Blackburn up by three and down by one — statistical tie with a shrug toward the Republican.  Odd, because… everyone left Bredesen for dead since the race had been tied and then polls showed the bottom fell out and him sliding down to being down by fourteen.  What happened?  Did everyone move on from Kavanaugh – Bredesen’s disappointed liberal supporters shuffling back into the fold?  New topics emerge — it’s all about health care all of a sudden!  Taylor Swift actually successfully move the needle?  Republicans get complacent as Trump moves on to stump in the other states?  Really… what just happened here?

As it were, interesting to note… a typical headline for the mainstream media blaring “Polls show Tight Race“… and then the conservative Breitbart gets us…  Poll: Marsha Blackburn Leads Democrat Phil Bredesen in Tennessee Senate Race — indeed true, but if we had the partisan balance reversed, and a Democrat who had opened up a fourteen point lead that had suddenly slid down to three… it would be a different headline.

New Jersey:  God is on Bob Menendez’s side.  Good … strategy?
Have to counter-act… this...

“President Obama’s Justice Department had evidence that for several years Menendez had been traveling to the Dominican Republic to engage in sexual activity with prostitutes, some of whom were minors,” the attack ad states.

I suppose the idea is that in order to run a counter-attack on the ads, Bob Menendez is forced to dip into the real story of his corruption case.  But other than that… Sheesh.

Missouri:  I suppose we can give James O’keefe’s outfit something:  it’s better material than what they got out of Tennessee — ie: some words out of the candidate’s mouth.  They aren’t all that interesting — a call to campaign volunteers that you de-emphasize some things and emphasize other things to the more conservative electorate. As for they wouldn’t have interviewed him had they known he was from Project Veritas… yeah, you don’t say.

(Did Claire McCaskill really bluntly write out her cynical 2012 strategy?)

Michigan:  I really don’t understand what the take-away for making an issue of this would be.  Are they suggesting the candidate is sending out secret subliminal nazi messages to a core voting bloc?

At about the 10-second mark of James’ first general election TV ad, which is titled, “Ready to Serve,” the ad shows a school hallway as James, in his narration, talks about “failing schools.” To the left in the hallway is a bulletin board with a red, white and black swastika pinned to it. 

There is no mention of the symbol nor does it appear to have any direct link to the rest of the ad, which is centered on James’ argument that change is needed in Washington to fix Michigan’s most pressing problems. It was not immediately clear at which school the ad was shot.

I suppose we can say that if the schools are teaching the kids to be nazis, they are indeed failing schools.  If they’re teaching kids that nazis were a thing… it is a sign of success.

Indiana:  Battle of the surrogates:  Joseph Biden stumped for Joe Donnelly; Mark Pence stumped for Mike Braun.   Sign that Joe Donnelly is in a pickle

The video opens with clips of Medicare for All protesters, as a voiceover ominously warns that “socialists want to turn healthcare over to the government.” “Over my dead body,” Donnelly says. He later declares, “I support ICE” and and touts his support for military spending. He closes by quoting President Ronald Reagan’s mantra: “Peace through strength.” 

No firearms shooting “Medicare for All”, though.  (That’s for Republicans and Joe Manchin.)

As for Braun

“If Hillary Clinton was president, I would not be running for Senate,” he tells me in his office at Meyer Distributing, the company he founded more than three decades ago. “I’d be hunkered down in southern Indiana, trying to survive over the next two years.”

Doubt it.  Isn’t the standard line that you’ve been called out to “fight” the opposition in some resistance or other?

Florida:  Rick Scott and Hurricane Michael… the Rose Garden Strategy in action.  Scattered local Democrats praise the governor’s response — (some conservatives and crankly liberals see Christ Christie as being the deciding factor in 2012) — Bill Nelson aims to move the topicsome hard-headed political analysis floats around on what the facts of the shattered area mean for heavily Republican area voting.

Montana:  The “personal vendetta angle” is all the rage.  Matt Rosendale has Trump coming in to stump.  Tester has… Jeff Bridges?

West Virginia:  Someone explain to me Nick Saban’s politics?

North Dakota:  It is nauseating to see some grand high fiving from conservatives and Republicans upon the sad fallout of Heidi Heitkamp’s naming of some sexual assault victims.  Some poor vetting on Heitkamp’s part as she segues into her post-senate life, having to make one last point against the ascendant Republican and his words about “prairie tough”… goes a tad screwy.

the looming split election

Friday, October 12th, 2018

I see the National Review is running columns raving about the genius of the Founding Fathers for establishing a system where the Senate map of 2018 would be so heavily tilted toward the Republicans and conservative-wise.

None of this is to suggest that the Kavanaugh effect is not real. It is just to serve as a reminder that Senate elections are only a dim or distorted picture of public opinion. That was by design, as the Framers of the Constitution originally gave the power of selecting senators to state legislatures. But even after the passage of the 17th Amendment, which mandated popular elections for all senators, we still see the upper chamber’s strange relationship to public opinion. President Donald Trump is unpopular, and his Republican party looks likely to lose a substantial number of seats in the House, which was designed to reflect public opinion. But thanks to the peculiarities of the Senate classes, the GOP may walk away from the November midterm having netted a seat or two in the upper chamber.

The senate’s Democrats locked in by previous cycles when they did good for 2006 and 2012, and not able to advance into these southern and small states, and having to retreat in these border states.  Just as Jefferson had it: the lower chamber full of ruffians, the upper chamber –…

New Jersey:  It is worth noting, that embattled but probably safe Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez, is — due to committee seating — the Democratic face of any bi-partisan efforts in grilling President Trump on the Jamal Khashoggi Affair.  Or, I suppose, threading the fine line back to kissing Saudi butt.

Gives the guy something useful to do, instead of having to explain how he nearly escaped indictment.

Arizona:  The problem presented when your one time role as a social critic clashes with your growing political ambitions.  This particular one may not be too bad, per se, broadly speaking — the “Drain the Swamp” is about the same as calling out a “meth lab o democracy”, and in theory she’d be there to “fix it”… the specifics spell out the weathervane evolution.

Interesting in that it was the donor class speaking that tripped up Obama, Romney, and Hillary in previous elections.  Here, it’s the activist class for Kyrsten Sinema.

Missouri:  Republican candidate Josh Hawley has “pastor problems”… kind of.  Probably not.  Cue comments of “Jeremiah Wright” — which here and there I would heare the rejoinder of “Billy Graham’s phone conversations with Richard Nixon!”

I do find this noteworthy:

Barton’s 2012 book, “The Jefferson Lies,” which made the New York Times’ bestseller list, disputed what it called the “myth” of Thomas Jefferson’s relationship with Sally Hemings and even cast him as a civil rights visionary.

I think I saw the book once.  His brother did it… his brother a rapscallion shady moral figure, evidentally.  It’s where you have to go to skip past the dna evidence, and does fail Oscam’s Razor.

The perils of being in the market of a competitive race.

Heye, the GOP operative, got an on-the-ground feel for how McCaskill’s vote against last year’s tax overhaul has become a rallying point for her opponent. He vacationed in Lake of the Ozarks over the Labor Day weekend and recalled constant ads on a music app hitting McCaskill for her vote.

“Every commercial break — regardless of whether it was the Tom Petty channel or Johnny Cash or some Top 40 — every actual commercial would be anti-McCaskill,” Heye said. “Quite often it would be an ad that hit her for voting against the growing economy by voting against the tax bill. I didn’t hear those ads four times. I heard them 40 times.”

Still, it may not resonate with voters, according to Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Missouri, who has followed the race.

For one thing, isn’t this ad being shot at by the converted?  Can’t they micro-target it away from “Republican operative” to a more swingy demographic?

North Dakota:  Skipping past the atonal in not addressing the logic of the “Strong Women Prairie Pioneers” line, what I find myself is totally puzzled right about here:

“Well she admits she was a 15-year-old that had been drinking at a party that — I mean, how many 15-year-olds handle a lot of alcohol, you know, 36 years ago? When it wasn’t that common, by the way. … Thirty-six years ago it wasn’t that common for 15-year-olds to be at booze parties,” Cramer said.

I don’t understand.  High School Booze parties did not exist in 1980s America?  I don’t understand the world Representative Kevin Cramer is selling here.

West Virginia:  Well, what better use of the Opiod fighting money is there besides the helicopter?

Big question explored: why is Joe Manchin a Democrat?  Admittedly, diverting funds from one thing to another is a bi-partisan affair.

Montana:  Interesting enough.  Sarah Vowell’s dad is voting for Jon Tester.  Seems to be stylistic, frankly… he has the haircut going for him, and the missing fingers.

Tennessee:  So, the big news with the Phil Bredesen campaign … is that Jame O’Keefe’s old outfit — Project Veritas — has “shocking” video footage of low level certainly to the candidates’ left volunteer staffers rationalizing and justifying to prospective (“undercover journalist) liberal voters Bredesen’s stated moderation and support of Kavanaugh.

In addition to disapproval from volunteers and supporters, three staff members of the Tennessee Democratic Party at Bredesen’s campaign offices in Nashville also appeared disappointed in a secretly recorded video produced by the far-right political group Project Veritas Action Fund, known for its “sting” operations on Democratic politicians. The video, heavily edited and misleading or false at times, showed staff members claiming the move to support Kavanaugh was a political one to gain more support in the conservative state, rather than to show Bredesen’s true feelings about Kavanaugh.

Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Mary Mancini told Newsweek in a statement the people shown in the video are field organizers with Tennessee Victory 2018, an umbrella grassroots organization of the state party that works to elect Democrats across the state. They are not staff members of the Bredesen for Senate campaign.

“For weeks, a young woman claiming to be a supporter volunteered and gained their trust,” said Mancini, referring to the woman secretly recording the staffers who labeled herself as a “journalist” in the video. “Then, per the usual slimy tactics of [James] O’Keefe and Project Veritas, she betrayed that trust for cynical political gain.”

Federal Election Commission records show the three staffers identified in the video–Delaney Brown, Will Stewart and Maria Amalla–are paid by the state’s Democratic Party. Tennessee Democratic Party Spokesman Mark Brown told Newsweek they were “simply expressing their opinions to someone they thought was a friend” and do not have “access to any high-level campaign strategy or messaging, and no one in that video knows the inner thoughts of Governor Bredesen.”

Tennessee Victory 2018 said it was considering legal action against Project Veritas.  

It’s better than their other attempt.

Texas:  Beto O’rourke’s campaign war chest in what looks to be a losing effort … shouldn’t that be enough to string in a few Congessional critters and down-ticket state legislators?  And beyond which…

“It will be bad for everyone, Beto included, if he finishes his race with money in the bank when that money could’ve helped elect Democrats in Missouri, Tennessee or North Dakota,” Mr. Miller added.

At the moment, the only race of those three where this line of logic — “throw some of your money to the DSCC” — makes sense is the Missouri race.

I see the team of Nate Silver’s 538 postulate that should he go on to lose… he may just be Presidential timber for the Democrats!  (Should he win, of course, his career is now bogged down as “Senator”.  Such is the logic of our current politics.)

Bredesen is a Republican, so why are conservatives upset with Taylor Swift?

Tuesday, October 9th, 2018

Conventional wisdom... and we gauge the purple states turn blue and the red states move further red for this election.

Tennessee:  Polls had shown Marsha Blackburn polling ahead of Phil Bredesen, where before it had been even – putting all this time (enough for the one “political forecaster that refuses to do toss-ups” to give Bredesen the inched edge).  It’s possible that the “Kavanaugh Effect” only revealed the numbers that were there already and would have been realized one way or the other — the twist here being that this one is the Democrat who came out for confirming Kavanaugh — and indeed, against Charles Schumer as party leader, and indeed is trying very hard to remind everyone that he was “The Best Republican Governor” Tennessee ever had…

(Seriously, I don’t know what makes him a Democrat.)

Which makes Taylor Swift’s support … all the more interesting.  And I suppose this is an elliptical way to address that matter…

For a lot of us, we may never find a candidate or party with whom we agree 100% on every issue, but we have to vote anyway.

Bredesen will now completely disavow the reasons that Taylor Swift gave for supporting him.

And maybe this particular drop of Bredesen in the polls is the result of the left flank disillusioned… and with that, that is Taylor Swift holding back up — and, cute headline Rolling Stone.  We’ll know that she made the difference for certain if Bredesen wins by less than 65,000.

Does Ivory Tower even have a meaning?

Arizona:  Democratic candidate for Senate… Kyrsten Sinema is getting in hot water for… exaggerating her Horatio Alger background.  A little bit different than John Edwards — not so much the son of a mill worker as the son of a mill owner — her story ends up being one where she grew up dirt poor but instead was claiming to have been dust poor.  Did the shabby gas station she lived in for a time have running water and a stove?
The other grand issue with Sinema is interesting… a one time Green Party activist, she now considers Joe Manchin her political lodestar.  Where did some anti-war flyers of skeleton troops fit into the picture, I don’t know… and, hm… well, it all needs to be blunt, don’t it?
All of which adds up to the old saw — it was Winston Churchill that said, if you weren’t a radical in your youth you have no heart; if you’re not an opportunistic weathervane later, you have no head.

Nevada:  Puzzled.

“If you look what’s going on right now in society, it’s an old playbook,” Rep. Rosen said in an interview with Cheddar. “When Sen. Heller photoshops my eyebrows, or they ask, ‘Why does a woman feel she’s qualified?’ Those are just very sexist questions, it’s an old playbook that they’re trying to use, because Sen. Heller specifically cant stand on his record, and so he needs to attack me as a woman.”

Hm.  Would they do this to a man?  Actually… maybe.

I suppose the obvious response from Heller is to make it the theme that “Representative Jacky Rosen is raising eyebrows”… on this and that liberal thingy.

Florida:  The race moves in a few different spots.  First of all, the two candidates are — reportedly — just boring everyone.  Second, apparently Charlie Crist is claiming that Bill Nelson is just getting too damned old...
Should go over well in Florida?

Well, youth and vitality and excitement are seen in the governor’s race… which is what’s going to have to propel one of the two senate candidates across the line —

Funny how a self published Ron DeSantis “tea party” book is getting played differently… see here, as opposed to here.

Worth noting:

One of the most disturbing claims he made in the book was that Thurgood Marshall, the first African-American Supreme Court justice, was wrong to suggest the founding fathers’ failure to abolish slavery in the Constitution was a fundamental flaw.

“For someone like Marshall, this failure overshadows the numerous and long-lasting political achievements embodied in the structural foundations of the government that have nothing to do with the institution of slavery,” DeSantis said. […]

If DeSantis had simply left it at the fact that tolerating slavery was essential to get the Southern states on board, he might have had a point. But for him to claim the Constitution somehow preordained the end of slavery as written is pure whitewashing, given that it took a bloody civil war to amend it to do so.

That particular point would be echoing the stated views of Abraham Lincoln’s — politically convenient and not those of the Abolitionists he was sliding into an electoral coalition.  For what it’s worth.

Texas.  Ted Cruz decided CNN not part of his strategy, not who he’s speaking for, gonna try for an “equal time” with Fox News?