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“toss up”

Friday, October 21st, 2016

Well la de freaking da.

Utah is about 60% Mormon, and Trump is not the favorite of Mormons in any state, as far as we can tell. McMullin is only on the ballot in 11 states, but among those is heavily Republican Idaho, which has the nation’s second-highest percentage of Mormons (the state is about a quarter Mormon). The only recent poll there did not include McMullin, but it showed Trump at only a weak 40% of the vote, up 10 points on Clinton. McMullin is moving into Idaho as well, holding two well-attended rallies in the state over the weekend. We’re pushing Idaho from Safe Republican to Likely Republican just as a way to flag that the McMullin conservative insurgency has spread there as well. Trump is a much clearer favorite there than he is in Utah, however.

The problem is … he is the Mormon Candidate ™, and his support appears to be stuck with Mormon Republicans looking for a way out of Trump and

Utah Republicans – particularly those who are members of the Mormon Church – have been rejecting Trump in large numbers, led by Gov. Gary Herbert and two GOP members of Congress. That’s provided an opening for McMullin, in a state where 63 percent of the population is Mormon.
In Idaho, 27 percent of residents are Mormon

… Still.  Fun if two states flip to some designated color not red or blue.  (Or, for that matter, if Utah somehow goes ‘blue’ here.)

on puppetry

Thursday, October 20th, 2016

Uh. Huh.  The high? Low? Light of the debate.  Memed to oblivion, and beyond.

TRUMP: …  from everything I see, [Vladimir Putin] has no respect for this person.
CLINTON: Well, that’s because he’d rather have a puppet as president of the United States.
TRUMP: No puppet. No puppet.
CLINTON: And it’s pretty clear…
TRUMP: You’re the puppet!
CLINTON: It’s pretty clear you won’t admit…
TRUMP: No, you’re the puppet.

I want Donald Trump to finish this thought.  The puppet to whom?

Some senate races

Wednesday, October 19th, 2016

I.  Arizona.  John McCain, running into trouble keeping Trump’s support but distancing himself in his race against Ann Kirkpatrick, pivots to the time-heeled manner Incumbent Politicians go to when they have trouble: I bring in federal money.

II.  Florida.  Sizing up Marco Rubio’s campaign.

And that’s what Rubio’s current race is all about — giving Rubio a platform from which to pursue the presidency. He will not even promise to serve the full six years if voters send him back to the Senate. In fact, he wouldn’t even truly serve the four years before the 2020 election. As he did in advance of the 2016 election, expect Rubio, if elected, to quickly blow off his Senate duties to run full time for president.


Why is he presidential timber?

III.  Georgia.  Johnny Isakson, trying to get to 50 percent plus one because otherwise he would have to do so in January.

His Democratic opponent apparently has decided Bernie Sanders’s rhetoric will sell in Georgia.

IV.  Hawaii.  Brian Schatz comes out swinging against the racist Jesse Waters “people on the street interviews in China Town New York” bit.

V.  Louisiana.  David Duke is running his campaign, essentially as Trump’s running mate.

Harsh comments:  As a former resident whom left upon the election of Piyush Jindal, and as someone with family still there.
Louisiana deserves David Duke, the man does, represent the majority of white opinion in that state.

VI.  Illinois.  Mitt Romney is trying to serve as an emblem of an alternative Republican political party in stumping for candidates — and here he is campaigning for Mark Kirk.

Romney endorsed Kirk on Wednesday, calling the Republican an “independent voice” who’s willing to work across party lines.

He doesn’t hold out any hope for Trump.

The former Massachusetts governor, who lost to President Barack Obama in 2012, also says the GOP must hold on to the Senate to “keep America from going off the rails.”

VII.  Indiana.  The US Chamber of Commerce does a flip-flop with Evan Bayh.

VIII.  Missouri.  Assessing how the Democratic challenger is coming up strong in a reddening state, I can’t help but note the unofficial comment’s reason.

Jason Kander has the best ad of 2016 which is the blindfold assemble machine gun ad.

Does Mike Pence exist?

Tuesday, October 18th, 2016

Amateur Hour with … hm… “Donald J Trump for President Inc”.  Behold.  The Oregon voter’s pamphlet entry for Donald Trump.

Donald J. Trump wants to Make America Great Again. He wants to reestablish our place in the world by steering our government away from special interests  … And etc. etc.

Hillary Clinton.

I’ve dedicated my career to making a difference for children and families. From working with leaders in both parties to help pass the Children’s Health Insurance Program to standing up for human rights abroad … And etc. etc.

And then there’s the vice presidents.  Tim Kaine.

In my more than two decades in public service, I’ve never met anyone more qualified to be President than Hillary Clinton. That’s why I’m so humbled and grateful to be her running mate.

After these flourishes putting attention on the top of the ticket, Tim Kaine jumps over to a biography…
And then there’s Mike Pence. … And, er?

Donald J. Trump wants to Make America Great Again. He wants to reestablish our place in the world by steering our government away from special interests and

A duplicate of Trump’s.
Maybe Pence really isn’t this?

Curious to note the photographs.  Clinton and Kaine are gazing up and to the left .  Trump and Pence are not as in sync, but are both vaguely profiled right-ward.  And once again, it doesn’t really look like Pence is into this one — just a weirdly scattershot photo.

further discussion of toast

Sunday, October 16th, 2016

At this point in the game, Julian Assange’s best bet with hacked email from Hillary Clinton is to quit timing releases to try to undermine the election and try instead at her presidency.  Don’t bother until the day of her inauguration.

Unless maybe the theory is to get the coming “T Party” opposition to hang onto — a head start.  (The “Deplorables” merchandise is a mock worthy, they need some new phrases to throw around.)

And here we see Pat Buchanan, now absorbing the fact that his favored politician is politically dead and having to get ready for Hillary, is complaining about insensitive comments (politically incorrect?  Locker Room Talk?) made from Hillary Clinton’s email conversations — damned the Catholic Church and its opposition to some of our issues!
Sure.  Trumped up grievances.  It’s tossed in with the horrors we see in Clinton trying to assemble — and defeat — the celebrity appeal of Trump (the surface-level discussion is what’s throwing some conspiranoids digging into the wikileaks) and caricatures of Bernie Sanders supporters (no less unflattering than what the current wikileaks – supporters have said / posted in the past.)
Funny thing, though.  The dominant religion amongst Mexicans, including immigrants from Mexico in the US — both those legally here and not legally here — Catholicism.  Insulted publicly.  But Pat Buchanan is not terribly concerned.

It’s kind of weird.

On Thursday, Clinton appeared to get choked up on the set of “The Ellen DeGeneres Show” when, during a taping, DeGeneres played a portion of Michelle Obama’s speech.
But Clinton quickly composed herself and, in a remarkable post-gender punt, pivoted to a laundry list of other constituencies whom she said Trump had offended

The political news analysis here is spotted as coming from her trying to avoid the “Gender Card” and / or the Clinton Past.  Political reasons — leave it to the apolitical Michelle Obama?  But I do have to wonder if there’s maybe a little bit of a need to — tie a few things together.  Toss out, even non-analytically, a certain intersectionality to Trump’s “litany”.  Shouldn’t a man who begins the campaign launch with a statement on Mexicans as rapists be automatically disqualified?  Why did it take this?  Because And someone who digs so deep into this pile of demagoguery is the kind of person you you won’t / shouldn’t be surprised to see “the tape”.

And then there’s

Trump’s Sunday morning tweet storm included a critique of NBC’s Saturday Night Live and its new Trump impersonator, Alec Baldwin.

“Watched Saturday Night Live hit job on me,” the candidate tweeted. “Time to retire the boring and unfunny show. Alec Baldwin portrayal stinks.”

For good measure, Trump added: “Media rigging election!”

Oh, for happier times.  Back when he was hosting, one year ago, last November.  If Trump could turn back time.

“Autopsy” Report

Friday, October 14th, 2016

Leaving Trump on the ticket will “simplify the GOP’s quadrennial exercise of writing its post-campaign autopsy, which this year can be published November 9 in one sentence: ‘Perhaps it is imprudent to nominate a venomous charlatan.’” — George Will

Revisit the 2012 Republican Party “Autopsy”, and we’re back at one  basic outline: Republicans need to figure out how to win some Hispanic votes.
The question coming out of 2016 becomes a sort of — how do you drag a core of Republican voters to respond to this… something about compromise… even in terms of rhetoric.

I have a theory that a feedback loop is clogging up the electorate here.  Sure, there’s the problem when a part of the public steers their news coverage to conservative talk radio and Fox News — and encouraging the — er, loud boisterous voices that come with it.  But more-so than this, it’s the Presidential electorate versus the Midterm electorate — the former receives a 60 plus percent voter turnout, the latter runs into the 40s.  It produces different incentives for the politicos up in each set of elections, and creates the effect coming out of 2010 and, more importantly and especially, 2014 that the American Public… why, everyone must hate Obama and the Liberals as much as I do — just look at these election results.

The good news for the Republicans is that is that this 20 point gap and attendant mid-term drubbings destroyed a Democratic bench, and so the Democratic Senate candidates clump into groups of retreads and hazy not quite theres.  I presume it is likely to come around for these down-ticket races back to something resembling even the barest of coat-tails, as Trump tanks and takes his supporters with him — Donald Trump’s own bizarre feedback loop — he’s speaking before his cheering crowds.  (Please note, to understand the political strategy of Donald Trump from here on out — in reference to a straight news article following the first debate suggesting that Donald Trump is doing “the opposite” of conventional wisdom in winning segments of the vote — this is where we land.)

Mormons hate Donald Trump

Thursday, October 13th, 2016

Trump had been getting the most tepid lesser-of-two-evil support from the Mormons of Utah.  Now?

Wacky polls from Utah.

The poll shows Clinton and Trump tied at 26 percent, McMullin with 22 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 14 percent if the election were held today.

Or there’s this.

Among Utah voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 34% currently support Trump, 28% back Clinton, 20% back McMullin, and 9% support Libertarian Gary Johnson.  Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 1% of the vote and another 6% are undecided. 

Basically the conservative vote splits three ways, consolidating the liberal vote.

Of course, being that there are no competitive down state campaigns — not that I’m aware of — for Hillary to try to get any coat-tails on, it would be pointless for Hillary Clinton to chase these electoral votes.  So it is a matter of whatever happens, happens.  But it is neat to consider, and even neater to consider the 3rd party — and not even one of the renown third parties — winning a state.

archetypes and tropes

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

It is worth pointing out that the hero for the serial killer in Brett Easton Ellis’s American Psycho

… and, yes, I know: everything is fantasy sequences from the CEO boardroom and there is no serial killer here per se …

… reflecting a sociopathy of 1980s corporate New York …

And the hero of Patrick Bateman is… Donald Trump.

(An earlier vintage, I suppose.)

A curious archtype we have here.  And that question swirls about… “How did he come to the summit as nominee of a major political party?”  As far back as the late 80s / early 90s, he was an obvious foil to fulfill this role in (controversial, a book described by an actual murderer as his “bible” and floats about lists for “banned book week”) literature.

And trying to analyze the appeals and dis-appeals of the candidates will lead one into a little trouble.  We got this one in 2000, and I’d wager George W Bush makes a better Paul Metzler than Donald Trump — but assemble Al Gore and Hillary Clinton for Tracy Glick, with now the gender bias coming fully into place.  So,when (sans movie) an editorial appears after the first debate describing the teen film motifs with the know-it-all honor student (girl) who’s done his homework and the sneering devil may care (boy) who “plays by his own rules” — an anti-hero who I suppose fulfills his role — I see this later derided in a liberal mag as an example of media sexism.  Which presents the problem / question of trying to analyze and spell out sometimes sexist motifs running across the American electorate.

Trying to churn Donald Trump into a sympathetic and redeemable character (and the ghost writer for Art of the Deal deeply regrets doing so) and you inevitably land on this contortion.  Another William Randolph Hearst / Citizen Kane.  And we await Donald Trump on the eve of his election walking to the balcony as his angry crowd of misguided true believers (who somehow think a Clinton 20 point landslide was “stolen” from the rightful winner Trump) is now desperately shouting “Rosebud!”