Archive for the 'April Fools' Category

Crunching the Numbers — the Rise of the Barack Obama / Kesha Rogers tag-team Democrats

Thursday, May 31st, 2012

Basically the only one, I paid some attention to the Congressional race pitting Delia Lopez and Ronald Green for an ultimately meaningless match-up against incumbent Earl Blumenauer — a man who can hold his seat for as long as he wants and will eventually be replaced by another Democrat.  (Maybe Dennis Kucinich can seek his comeback here?)  I thought it was something of an upset when Ronald Green beat Delia Lopez.    Because I could spot Lopez with a certain amount of supporters and backers.  A local conservative radio host.  Some Ron Paul supporters boosted her on the Internet.  And she had won the Republican race twice before.  For that matter, much to her expressed astonishment, the Larouche Movement gave her a plug in 2010 — though I could never find the supposed support of Glass Steagall anywhere that helped lead to the mention.  (‘Can’t hold the Larouche endorsement against her, and besides which there’s plenty to do — she is nutty.)

The election results I found interesting.  What set Ronald Green apart from Delia Lopez?  The Oregonian gave a tepid endorsement to Green on the basis of “He actually lives here”; the Willamette Week gave a tepid endorsement to Lopez with a shrug.  Maybe Green’s platform is just more attractive to the registered Republicans here — Lopez is nutty; Green just comes across as (somewhat refreshingly, I might say) eccentric with respect to how the two parties are drawn.  And maybe a bit of Delia Lopez fatigue has set in — two runs are enough for her.

 Enter the fighting Texas 22nd District.  The stronghold for Incumbent Pete Olson.  Some relevant election results.  Start with the statewide total for Democratic Presidential Primary.

Barack Obama 88.21 percent
John Wolfe 5.05 percent
Darcy G Richardson 4.29 percent
Bob Ely 2.43 percent

John Wolfe, you will remember, as the man who won a whole slew of counties in West Virginia Arkansas.  If a voter felt that it was absolutely paramount that the survival of the species required Obama’s hasty removal, he would be a good candidate to cast your ballot toward.

Another interesting race result is who is now pushed forward to the next primary in the Democratic Senate race.

Paul Sadler 34.35 percent
Grady Yarbrough 26.46 percent

The results do not argue well for the Democrats having a chance of winning in November — in a Republican state in a Presidential election year, the putative favorite comes forward at just over a third of the vote.  And who is this at number 2?  From what I can tell, a man on the ballot who ran little campaign who came through off of the name of the Great Texas Liberal Democratic Senator Ralph Yarborough.  He reports that he “bought some ads” in some black oriented media — there might be some identity politics voting going into his election total (that thumped him past a couple other slightly better known but not really candidates).

I wish I could find the results on a district wide vote tally at the Texas Secretary of State elections page.  But unfortunately they’re tallied by counties.  When I can find these results by district, I will add it to this page.

I am absolutely positive my math is “fuzzy” here, and for the sake of simplification I have made a giant assumption and thrown the “under-votes” into the same pattern of voting.

Brazoria County
Barack Obama …. 1,270 … 89.94% of early vote (1,270) 91.56% total (3,050)

Pete Sadler … 37.68 percent total — Grady Yarbrough 22.54% total

KP Geoge — 382, 49.29 percent early vote — (759) 42.54 percent total votes
Kesha Rogers 393, 50.7 percent early vote — (1,025) 57.45 percent total vote

I suppose we can assume that the 9.46 percent of dissenters from Obama cast their lot with Kesha Rogers, which would leave us with 48 percent of the vote casting a ballot for both Obama and Kesha Rogers.  The chance that a Kesha Rogers voter cast their ballot for Obama stands at 85.5 percent.

Harris County

Barack Obama — 32,380 early votes 94.94 percent  — 67,978 total votes 95.26 percent

Paul Sadler –17,436 total votes  28.43 percent — Grady Yarbrough — 18,327 total votes; 29.88 percent

KP George 237 early votes 43.16 percent  — 516 total votes, 38.27 percent
Kesha Rogers 312 early votes 56.83 percent — 836 total votes, 61.76 percent

Giving Kesha Rogers the 4.74 percent of the anti-Obama vote, the chance that a Kesha Rogers voter cast their ballot for Obama would be roughly 93.2 percent.


Barack Obama 4,054 early votes — 96.98 percent ; 9,617 total votes (97.42 percent)

Paul Sadler 28.97 — Grady Yarbrough — 32.92

KP George — 1,152 early votes, 61.50 percent — 2,278 total votes — 55.83 percent
Kesha Rogers 721 early votes, 38.49 percent — 1,802 total votes — 44.16  percent

Giving Kesha Rogers the 2.58 percent of the anti-Obama votes, the chances that a Kesha Rogers voter cast their ballot for Obama is 94.15.


Barack Obama … 2,474 early 91.62 — 4,948 total, 92.21

Paul Sadler — 22.06 percent; Grady Yarbrough — 44.61

This one I’m screwed with.  The map shows a part of Galveston a part of the district, but there are no results under this category.

I see a few things to take away from these results.  You can make of them what you will.