Stare at the headline. “Amber Glenn becomes first LGBTQ+ woman to win U.S. Women’s Figure Skating Championship”. I have one question. Transgender? Because if the answer is no, there is no story, headline, controversy — even “bogus” “cultural war” — in this. And it would make that interesting twist as against the overall twists in general — I would assume it would be transitioned to men that would start dominating that field. (An obnoxiously subjective one of measuring “grace” points when skating). And there I scroll down the page. I catch a photograph of some pretty looking man. For a second I think — maybe that’s the same person as the woman earlier shown at the podium. And no. It is not. That is some cis-guy in the men’s competition. So this story is boring. Biological woman wins skating contest, and we can knock off the letters at “l” if interested in her personal life — and maybe you are — because everything else confused the actual story. Wake me up when she transitions to manhood and wins a contest — then we have something to debate.

Maybe not literal. But something pops out in watching news coverage on a California Senatorial debate. When discussing the war in Gaza —

Lee urged for a permanent cease-fire in the conflict.

“The only way Israel is going to be secure is through a permanent cease-fire,” Lee said. “The only way that is going to happen is with a political and diplomatic solution.“

Porter said cease-fire is not a “magic word – you can’t say it and make it so.”

“But we have to push, as the United States, as a world leader for us to get to a cease-fire and to avoid another forever war,” Porter said.

And Schiff defends Israel’s right to self defence and probably in tacking on that dream of forcing a two state solution amongst two parties that have ceased showing they care for it. Okay. Steve Garvey? Maybe he has a baseball analogy, or hopes to get in the Trump sweet spot of being simultaneously hawkish with respect to Israel and pooh-poohing “forever war”.

Forever War. Another one, key word “another”. Like, one that just spring up as a war just now, never a war before Biden (or Bush’s Forever Wars), not like essentially a continuous war since the 1940s.

Maybe not forever, but with our short attention spans and short historical memories, essentially one.

There is this amusement to be had in contextualizing one way and another that big Donald Trump Iowa caucus triumph. Not a big vote, they say. It never is, the weather was rotten, and the contest was half a contest. The biggest margin of victory of any contested Iowa caucus, bigger than the Dole smash of Robertson in 1988. Yep. Served Dole well. But wait! The guy is basically an incumbent and 50 percent as an incumbent sure is not good. Sure. Now we have to go by these new standards, and I have to look up how Buchanan did against Bush in 1992. The Iowa republican caucuses were cancelled, it tells me — I want to know why — setting up Pat Buchanans showing in New Hampshire, which depending on whether we set this as an incumbent or contested election — means Haley either has to clear Buchanan’s percentage with New Hampshire or win something. To be sure, the Buchanan analogy comes to play with some Republican Trump surrogates acting as pundits on … CNN or one of the networks … making the case that after all these years of “us” stomaching and being urged to pull the vote for the Romneys and the Bushes and the Doles and the McCains, it is up to the Romneys and the Bushes and the Doles and the McCains to do the deed for their guy in Trump. That would make for a static electorate if no one she’d away from different nominees of the parties and no breaking point existed with selling from the other guy. But. Haley is not even bothering to do against Trump what Buchanan was doing with Bush, and won’t even get the same consideration of a primest time convention speech for her efforts.

The exciting Iowa caucuses. An over / under on whether the DeSantis or Haley campaigns will beat out the Bill Weld 2020 total of one delegate. And I guess they will. Weld got a bigger bang for his vote total, though, and the … 33 percent? of non-Trump votes coming in tonight will land on … less than ten delegates. I assume. I suppose we could figure we have a guaranteed delegate — unless that off locale has it that the one Trumpeter is the only person strangling in out of the horrid weather.

Facing an election where at least a chunk of the Democratic electorate are going to dribble off due to the Israeli – Palestine conflict. A curious matter in listening to some progressives with a prior of assumption that Israel is in the wrong, more or less en toto. A supposed history lesson on the history of Zionism gives the statement that in its long inception of a fight and through its history it was oft to right wing politics. And the thing leaves off the reality that at the time of its actual proclamation as a nation, it was associated with liberalism — and a dream of a sorta quasi socialism under Prime Minister Einstein sat there. Tangling in there in terms of American politics, I see a story from, oh, Mother Jones claiming far right wing (antisemite) jackass figures are claiming the mantle of Palestine in trying to get in with the Left (jackasses). Sure. As they always have. And more to the point, let us take a look at The Nation magazine circa 1948 into the 1950s versus The American Mercury magazine.

Lastly a casual diss of Biden. “Can’t really stomach that genocide thing”. Yeah. I do not know if you are talking about the Israelian government (and our noxious Netanyahu backed settlement governance) or Hamas. Or I do, but only because of the context of your priors.

I see this msnbc clip on youtube. It winds its way through the manner that Epstein is getting covered by the right, a tricky wicket of insinuations where every person of big import has imposed with the man. And then the host mentions Trump’s dealing, rolls out the old quote from him –something about how he knows Epstein, he likes the ladies, and he likes them a little on the young side. The host brings in Robert Kennedy Jr explaining that, yes, he was on the plane with Epstein a couple times, and there the host has to reiterate “no evidence of anything more.”

And then the take away. ” There is only presidential candidate running with no ties to Jeffrey Epstein. And that man is named Joseph Biden. “

Laying aside he perhaps rightly tossed aside some of the Republican aspirants — question Nikki Haley now I guess — what is interesting here is… He just categorized Robert F Kennedy Jr as a “major presidential candidate”. A list of three.

The semi- but not quite wholly respectable chances of Nikki Haley’s nomination may have gone up in smokes. I mean, I guess I should look at the editorial headlined that even conservatives falling for this to see if that veers into the lack of nuance of not taking an answer on the causes of the Civil War that does not mention slavery (It’s current year!) or if it beers into Haley’s “liberal set up” line — as though we don’t know that exists. And I gather if chances did not suggest the need for a perfect strike, unless this actually does not count as even any kind of hit for a Republican primary electorate, it throws her off of winning New Hampshire, so — game about over.

The deus-ex-machina of 14th Amendment state disavowals for Trump loom as something, though it is hard to figure what. The tedium is, of course, that I can see the point for this, and I can see why it might as well drive forward despite the “partisans will use it against Dems” claim. Yep. There the governor of Texas chimed in, saying Texas should dump Biden from the ballot, because of … Hm… Border. A loopy definition of the supposed “treason”. The question here is it some deus- ex – mechanisms process — does that still represent Haley as the second most likely winner of the Republican nomination — just now moved from slim to slimmer?

There is this weird feeling I habeon this line of “wait a minute”, maybe not all but a good deal of it, which is — “Screw it”. Take this …

Consider the 1994 classic The Santa Clause, in which Tim Allen’s character, Scott Calvin, accidentally kills Santa when he falls off Calvin’s roof. As a result, he finds himself forced to take on jolly St. Nick’s role.

On social media, some people have started to reconsider the film on the plot point alone.

This is the line of journalism that pulls together social media posts — as much as everyone says Elin Musk has destroyed Twitter it sure still gets cited a lot — which fits a prior premise. By definition the people watching Tim Allen’s movie, enjoying it, and not giving this plot premise a second thought are not tweeting their lack of reconsideration or impression. Further, I have two reminders on this.

One: it is a mercy death. Tim Allen’s character has saved this Santa Claus from a thousand years of torment. Years down the line, he will himself be trying to get himself into the position for someone to kill him and end this torment.

Two: For balance — Santa Claus as killer instead — just double bill it with Silent Night, Deadly Night. Your new reconsidered issue with the movie’s premise — solved.

Maybe it is absurd to pull hair reading some articles in the National Review, as I read their commenters talk their way into voting for Donald Trump. Like, it is one thing if their reasoning is some policies outweigh the bad but this is not what I am getting. Or maybe it is but they miss the point on “bad” when framing the issue that “I am no supporter of Trump, BUT” — failing to drop in on anything but the most superficial of oppositions to Trump.

The equivalence argument. It slides past Trump’s unconstitutional acts by linking to Biden’s great act of unconstitutionality. And what was that? Oh, it was the political game he played with student debt, at its core a policy issue you can support or oppose at your leisure, and which Biden needed to at keast feign an attempt to get at but couldn’t through congress. Advisors told him his subsequent attempt wouldn’t work, the courts rebuffed him, and that was the end of that. I stare at this reasoning blankly, muttering “You can not be serious”.

Good news, though. Even if the next Trump follows through on the vast media-now-hyperventilating-by-taking-serious-stump-speech-declarations-about-“dictator”-on-“day”-“one”-and-tgen-beyond — as we saw last time in office the Republican congress did plenty of push back on policy aims, there will be a handful of Republicans from districts that voted for Biden, and Hey! Collins and Murkowsi are in the Senate and they stomped the Stress test indeed — I mean, they kept Trump from ripping up “Obama-care”. (Again with middling policy issues). They have missed the fact we have a new Speaker. Also “he hits hard, but the defended hold” sure makes a weird argument.

I have trouble bending over backwards to meet anything here. Like, the “constitutional” issue has already been shot with the statement that is never resolved, and which until it is resolved nothing else here matters. “Obviously, all Americans should support the prosecution of the people who violently attacked police and forced their way into the Capitol.”. Trump disagrees with that statement – – he opens campaign rallied with a call in from these “patriots” in jail right now. And, like, you can argue a good defense that Trump was not an “insurrectionist” by law, but the manner of politics versus the law should put it in political terms as “close enough”.

The game continues. See where we are in three months.

Continue to stumble on hic-ups in otherwise sound political electoral analyses. Try this about here:

If you think Joe Biden’s endorsement from Representative Jim Clyburn ahead of his 2020 South Carolina primary victory means Sununu can do the same for Haley in New Hampshire, think again. Biden was never behind in South Carolina polling, let alone trailing by double-digits.

And off to a link showing South Carolina primary polling, polling which showed that — yep! Biden was never behind. And results showing a 13 point surge from the final polls, which itself were about 10 points above the bottoming out a week or so prior. And, no I was not ever going to specify Sununu in particular, but as a conglomeration with anyone and anything else — message to pre Trump Republicans: it is Haley or no one — the effect of a 23 point swing — is what is needed — to win New Hampshire, and into South Carolina — and there is the only chance in Hell.

In the meantime, Iowa sits there. Stops whatever thought anyone has of such a thing. Caucuses. And I have a bit of a theory — you know that idea, a shy Trump voter — so much social stigma in certain parts and places to admit that, yes I am casting my lot with Trump — throw the polls off in 2016, maybe? Well, at this point who wants to be the lead of a bunch of Republicans in a room of Trump Republicans saying we need someone else? I guess someone was in 2020 — Bill Weld came away with a delegate.