we’ll see how many peel away from never trumping

May 4th, 2016

Glenn Beck doesn’t see a Republican President ever happening again.  He is, of course, insane and embarking on some hyperbolic End Times Gambit.  Every party gets to be the Whig Party, right on the edge of collapse, seemingly every other year.

And making a bit more sense than Glenn Beck or David Brooks in assessing the coming of Trump…
George Will wants a 50 state victory for Hillary Clinton

Were he to be nominated, conservatives would have two tasks. One would be to help him lose 50 states — condign punishment for his comprehensive disdain for conservative essentials, including the manners and grace that should lubricate the nation’s civic life. Second, conservatives can try to save from the anti-Trump undertow as many senators, representatives, governors and state legislators as possible.

My best guess is he’d prefer that with a third party that keeps Hillary below the 50 percent threshold.  Though that’s with it’s risk.

Perhaps, but it’s more likely that dueling presidential candidates would put House and Senate Republican candidates in a perilous spot. Do they support Mr. Trump or the third-party conservative? If they are forced to choose, they could alienate enough GOP voters to ensure defeat. Consider how gingerly Mike Pence, the Indiana Governor running for re-election this year, handled his state’s GOP primary last week. He said he’s voting for Ted Cruz while also praising Mr. Trump.
GOP incumbents in swing states will be in a tough enough position being asked at every turn what they think about Mr. Trump’s latest rhetorical or policy eruption. Better for them to navigate issue-by-issue around the Trump black-swan candidacy while demonstrating their own convictions and independence.

Well… there’s always the Libertarian Party.  Maybe?
They’ll get above that one percent that they were shooting for in 2012.  That’s the extent of my prediction.

All of which — the David Brooks George Will Glenn Beck decision to not vote for Donald Trump and either vote for Hillary or try some third party or not vote for the top ballot — is viewed by your Kurt Nimmo (Alex Jones figures) as “Last ditch effort to deny Donald Trump the White House“, as opposed to… not voting or advocating against their preferred candidate.

Can Keith Judd do it again?

May 4th, 2016

I’m curious to see how this one goes, actually.  The West Virginia Democratic Primary.

On the Democratic side Bernie Sanders is leading with 45% to 37% for Hillary Clinton. The 18% of voters who are undecided is unusually high and speaks to the number of registered Democrats in West Virginia who don’t really identify with the national party at this point. Among the undecideds Sanders has a 15/77 favorability rating and Clinton’s even worse off at 12/84 so there may end up being a decent mass of voters who just don’t vote for either of the candidates.

The state that went for Stevenson 1952, Humphrey 1968, Carter 1980, and Dukakis 1988.  Signs that they would go for the “Democratic Socialism” in 2016?  But in 2008, past the point where Obama had essentially sealed the nomination, Hillary thumped Obama by 40, and where a veritable weirdo garnered 40 percent plus of the vote against the incumbent Obama in 2012 — from a prison cell (emulating the campaign of actual socialist Eugene Debs?)

Somehow the more telling election is the 2012 than the 2008, considering the party that’s supposed to lose, Hillary, was the overwhelming victor in 2008.

According to the wikipedia page, the candidates on the ballot:

Hillary Clinton
Rocky De La Fuente
Paul T. Farrell Jr.

Keith Judd
Martin O’Malley (stuck on the ballot)
Bernie Sanders

Notable that Keith Judd is again on the ballot, so it’s possible he could be advantaged by that increase name recognition, even if voters selecting don’t quite know who they’re voting for.

The story-line suggests that if Donald Trump were on the ballot, he would carry a good swarth of the Democratic vote.  Perhaps come in second.  Perhaps first?

give it a pass as it’s a remake for basic cable

May 2nd, 2016
There’s going to be an “Adventures in Babysitting” remake.  Because… why not?
The movie stars Disney Channel favorites Sabrina Carpenter and Sofia Carson as a pair of rival babysitters who are forced to work together when one of the children they’re charged with watching goes missing. It’s a modern take on the 1980s film of the same name that starred Elisabeth Shue and Anthony Rapp. In the Shue version, her babysitter met with car thieves, gangs, and had one of her charges stuck on the outside of a skyscraper, so expect plenty of comparable shenanigans.
Comparable shenanigans?
With all due respect to the director of Adventures in Babysitting, Chris Colombus, he helped create one of the most racist films in American cinematic history.
Seen this formulation before…
But please consider the plot:
A white girl (Elizabeth Shue, lightyears from her work in Leaving Las Vegas) is baby-sitting several white kids, when she gets a desperate phone call from her white girl friend. Why is her white girl friend desperate? Because she is stuck in a downtown bus station, surrounded by (gasp) African Americans!
When Shue gets downtown, various amusing adventures ensue. But how can it be ignored that each of the adventures involves meeting someone who lives in the inner city who is African American. And every single African American she meets is a criminal. There is only one exception: (are you ready? ‘spoiler’ ahead!): the African Americans who sing and dance!
Colombus must have been very disappointed that Steppin Fetchit (who adopted that stage name as a joke) was not alive and could not appear in his film.
There is one African American who helps Shue and who does not sing and dance. (Spoiler ahead) I kept hoping he would turn out to be an undercover cop. But, no, he was a car thief.
Actually it’s along the lines of safe, secure Suburbanites struck in the the big scary city, (the car gets a bunch of flat tires right when it enters the city, right?)  but that is arguably the same matter.  Somewhere in the denoument we have the characters forced — something at gun point? — to sing the blues about babysitting.  Don’t know how the remake would handle this one — best guess is that the 1980s not being the 2010s, there’s someone in the back double and triple and quadruple checking for whiffs of “micro-aggression”.

Patio Man’s Revenge

April 29th, 2016

Donald Trump got lucky-ish on the calendar.  The New York primary was in just the right spot for him, to curb the slow momentum of Ted Cruz, and instead launch Trump on to the momentum to claim the big prizes for the next week’s primary matches.

If New York had been one primary on a larger primary night — one of more than one states, maybe Ted Cruz would have had a chance to do something.  IE: By skipping New York entirely.  But since New York was sitting there and he was involved in the fight, he had to put himself out there… somehow.  And the problem was… there is nobody worse than Ted Cruz to do this.  So Ted Cruz wanders around in the heaviest of Democratic districts in hopes that there might be an enclave of, say, Conservative Orthodox Jews to get him something from the troubles of landing in New York, and having his “New York Values” line thrown back at him by the city.  But the die was cast.

Who knows?  Maybe if the “Republican Establishment” choice (even by default) had been someone else, someone might have had a chance to crack New York, and curb the momentum from what had been petering out to a second round balloting to a first round Trump win.  But the problem is… there is no worse pick for The Republican Establishment alternative.

On Wednesday, the former speaker gleefully unloaded on Senator Ted Cruz before a crowd at Stanford University, colorfully describing the Republican presidential contender from Texas as “Lucifer in the flesh.”
“I have never worked with a more miserable son of a bitch in my life,” said Mr. Boehner, who has made previous disparaging remarks about Mr. Cruz in both public and private, though without comparing him directly to Satan.
An affronted Mr. Cruz, fighting in Indiana to keep his presidential bid alive, responded that he barely knew Mr. Boehner.
“If I have said 50 words in my life to John Boehner, I’d be surprised, and every one of them has consisted of pleasantries,” Mr. Cruz told reporters, noting that he had never really worked with Mr. Boehner.

And so it goes to the hail mary in Indiana — which still probably won’t curb the first call win for Trump.  Carly Fiorina is Cruz’s running mate.  Which is all very… weird.

I’m getting “John Kasich — Stop Trump — Stop Hillary.  OREGON VOTES” ads on the internet.  Yeah.  Sure.  If you can, go do that.  Ignore the crickets.

David Brooks doesn’t realize how ironic he is.

I was surprised by Trump’s success because I’ve slipped into a bad pattern, spending large chunks of my life in the bourgeois strata — in professional circles with people with similar status and demographics to my own. It takes an act of will to rip yourself out of that and go where you feel least comfortable. But this column is going to try to do that over the next months and years.

I knew I couldn’t be the only person to note this with a smack at my head.

This is a rather interesting admission from the author of Bobos in Paradise, the chronicler of life along the D.C. Metro’s Red Line, the bard of the “utopian conservatism” of Patio Men living the good life in the sprawling suburbs.

Well… the beat… goes on.

euphemisms gone awry

April 29th, 2016

My guess is he’s probing for possible room-mates, and this is a setting I’d more than expect to hear this:

“Are you 4/20 friendly?” […] “4/20 Friendly?” […] “(sigh) Do you smoke marijuana?”

My best guess is that if you have to answer what ‘4/20 friendly means’, whatever they think of marijuana — whether negative or positive or even (probably infrequent) casual user…

the answer is no… they are not “4/20 friendly”.

lessons from the Oregon Voters Pamphlet

April 22nd, 2016

David Morrison is running for city commission to defeat cell phone radiation.
Dave Stauffer is running for Secretary of State to promote an invention which will solve the country’s environmental problems.
Donald J Trump supports free and fair trade, and opens and closes with the same statement about making America Great Again.
Sam Carpenter, running for the Republican nomination for Senate, conflates defeating career politicians with defeating political correctness.
Mark Callahan, running for the Republican nomination for Senate, seems to be trying for Trump supporters with a line about making Oregon Great Again, and Cruz supporters by being a true constitutionalist conservative.
Dan Laschober has unilaterally declared “Obamacare” to be the “Lie of the Year” for 2013.
Allan Alley bemoans a high high school drop out rate and high food stamp usage, and announces that Oregon has the “greatest people in the country” — a curious soliloquy that’s either a contradiction or not depending…
Sid Leiken, running for Secretary of State is sick of the one party rule AND the bickering between the parties… which should be solved by one problem over-ruling the other, I’d think.

party bosses fix a square state

April 17th, 2016

Ted Cruz tweets:

Donald, over 1.3mm people just voted in UT, ND, WI, CO & WY. You lost ALL FIVE in a row, by huge margins. #NoWhining

Donald Trump tweets in response:

Lyin’ Ted Cruz can’t get votes (I am millions ahead of him) so he has to get his delegates from the Republican bosses. It won’t work!

Both right.  I suppose.  Masses of people voted in Wisconsin, but… how many people just voted in Wyoming?  It’s not even within the right of the decimal point “point three”.

And here was Trump’s big plan to win the state.

While Trump continued campaigning in New York ahead of Tuesday’s primary, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin canceled her trip to Wyoming to stump for him at the convention. Instead, a local Trump-preferred delegate, Claire Powers, spoke for him.

She read a poem at the end of her speech that began, “Who do we want, Cruz or Trump?” The crowd interrupted her by shouting back — “Cruz!”

Does Wyoming love Palin?

It all ups to a good sojourn for Cruz, giving him a chance to vacation away from his wacky mis-adventures in New York City to more… shades brushy and thus welcoming environs.

Notable too:

In the 11th district, which includes parts of the Atlanta metropolitan area, former Rep. Bob Barr and former district chairman Scott Johnson, both Cruz supporters, were elected delegates along with current district chairman Brad Carver, who told POLITICO he’s neutral in the process.

Wait.  Isn’t Barr a member of the Libertarian Party?