those last three senate elections

November 10th, 2018

All the votes weren’t counted in Airzona, and Krysten Sinema moved from being behind to being ahead.  It happens.  Not really anything to see here, other than a strange desire to declare victories on election night.  What would have been ironic had Sinema lost is that she’d have lost with the aid of the Green Party candidate — the Green Party being Sinema’s one time political home… the one time spoiler becomes the spoiled.

Bill Nelson’s lawyers insist that he’ll win in the end — a stance I’d like more if he can lay the statistical numbers out to exacting detail.  (The Al Franken team did so in 2008).  Lawyers for Rick Scott and Desantis as well they themselves blow up smoke about voting fraud and … we’re down to this…
“The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.
Possibly.  But we can formulate an angry mob at the doors of someone peering at the ballots and create wonderful agitprop ala 2000.
What Bill Nelson is down to in Florida is… hoping that the bad ballot design didn’t steer voters in Broward County away from the Senate race and hope that an under-vote has something to do with machine malfunction.
Rick Scott is the governor of Florida.  The election’s going his way.

But if Bill Nelson’s lawyer is correct, (and I guess we’ll see sooner than later, at least with his formulation)… something a little amusing happens with the Senate elections.  The Republicans just picked up one seat in this supposed bifurcated election… which, if Mike Espy wins in the Mississippi run -off… unlikely, don’t hold your breath… would be down to zero.

everything and nothing changed after Election 2018

November 7th, 2018

I think when Nate Silver and 538 conjure up a narrow loss by Beto O’Rourke as a good thing for his 2020’s presidential ambitions because it leaves him unencumbered, that he is joking.

I … think.

But now I get this “take away” from David Frum positing something of the opposite.

If Beto O’Rourke had eked it out in Texas, Democrats might well have nominated him for president in 2020, almost guaranteeing a debacle. 

Har de Har har.

Looking around, and as always elections bring with them weird maps to ponder, unlike previous midterms the two political parties were energized to vote.  So there isn’t any giant whalloping that’s coming here.  Just… the post Trump realignment of a bunch of Romney — Clinton districts that didn’t take place two years ago (because the message Paul Ryan had in touting Republican congress candidates was a “Vote for –! Vote for Pence!  And, Trump, I guess…”)  and the fact that the possible Obama — Trump senate seat pick up possibilities were hold over from Democratic victories six years ago.  Meantime, the relative closeness of the lackadasical Senate election in Michigan (Stabenow beat a “John James” by 6 percentage points) and for that matter Ohio and Minnesota’s special, as too some gubernatorial races … doesn’t really argure well for Dem’s chances in 2020.  Florida is bizarrely fixed at precisely the political partisan alignment of two years ago, which … extrapulate that across the Southerner tinged bases of the rust belt map…

… Maybe Beto O’Rourke is vice presidential timber to try to pull down Texas?

I suppose purely optics based, the visual of Nancy Pelosi sitting behind Trump at the State of the Union for the next two years has… something of appeal.  At least thee’ll be the spectacle of Pence jumping up as Pelosi tries her hand at the Ryan stone slight frown face.  And Trump does as every conventional president does after the election — fire Jeff Sessions.  Replace him with someone obsessed who thinks the real story is Clinton’s email trail.

And I just want to know where the whole mass of ballots in Arizona are from

The doings of the Natural Law Party, 2018

November 6th, 2018

My bi-annual search on the continued existence… in one form or other… by ballot… of the Natural Law Party.

It still exists in Michigan.  For the hobby candidates.

“Less than 2 percent of the vote”.  Which is plenty.

The “Modern Whig Party” got a boost from David Brooks, who referenced it because… he thinks he’s tracing his political lineage these days to Henry Clay and Zachary Taylor.  They have as many people running for office as the Old Whig Party does… zero.  So The Natural Law Party still beats them.

Well, there’s always the good old Prohibition Party — which, after a couple of their long-term holder of the faith have died off — have a three way primary coming up for president in 2020.

on the eve of the stupid election

November 2nd, 2018

Joe Donnelly pumpin up facebook ads for the libertarian.  Wait.  Wasn’t this what Putin was up to in the last election?

The Libertarian jumped out of the race in Montana to endorse the Republican.  The Green just jumped out in Arizona to endorse the Democrat (Kyrsten Sinema.)  Dont these third party candidates have the courage of their conviction?

Here’s how Jon Tester in Montana is working to distance himself from the national Democrats like some of his “red state” colleaues in the “bashing fellow Democrats” ame (re: McCaskill): he weighs in on Elizabeth Warren’s dna test.

I suppose wikileaks will reveal a bunchof Joe Manchin-isms any day now.  See if they email like Snuffy Smith?

 

does any of it matter, in the end?

October 31st, 2018

Joe Donnelly, going for that Indiana minority vote:
“Our state director is Indian American, but he does an amazing job. Our director of all constituent services, she’s African American, but she does an even more incredible job than you could ever imagine. It isn’t their race or their religion, it’s the incredible person that they are.”
Some would call it a “dog whistle”, if … there was any message to the whistling.

Claire Mcaskill, differentiating herself from the “crazy” Democrats.  Random state legislator with an inflammatory facebook page.  Those people running after Ted Cruz at restaurants.  Apparently Elizabeth Warren.  Will this have the effect of ameliorating her “centrist” voting bloc to vote as against her “crazy” brethern, or remind them of what a bunch of crazies she’s running with?

The libertarian in Montana half supports, half doesn’t, the Republican running against Jon Tester, down the homestretch.  But apparently doesn’t.  Unless he did.  At any rate, the Republican touts some kind of endorsement, and the libertarian welcomes his voters to continue on voting for him.
Will he be another Stan Jones?

James O’Keefe nabbed another “red state” Democrat incumbent staffer having to assuage a liberal supporter of bonafides.  Probably disappointed in that it was the already doomed campaign of Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.  It’s all kinds of lazy, frankly — and serves to prove: the campaign volunteers of politicians are less trim sailing than their politicians.  I suppose this is the wave of the future and reciprocated in kind of some Democratic based outfit running about next time out.

Phil Bredesen’s chances hinge on whether Taylor Swift’s supporters are somewhat under-polled.  It’s hard to assuage whether he’s doing better in Tennessee than Beto O’Rourke is doing in Texas — “tightening” the headlines say on Texas…

Nevada —  In 2010, Reid trailed Republican Sharron Angle by 2.7 points in the final Real Clear Politics polling average; he won by 5.6 points. Democrats did a few points better than their polling in 2012, when Heller eked out a 1.2-point victory while Obama bested Romney by 6.7 points. And in 2016, Donald Trump had a 0.8-point lead in Nevada polling; Hillary Clinton beat him by 2.4 points.

read the news today, oboy

October 27th, 2018

Curious enough to look up “Robert Bowers”.  Received a list of six pages on facebook

I’m afraid to log in to see if any of them lead with “Not.  That.  Robert Bowers.”

I do wonder what that’d be like when someone gains a notoriety — to have his / her name.

senators and witch-craft

October 23rd, 2018

Arizona: Oh, the stupid controversies conjured up by a past political life.  A past association with “witches” leads to the question “… Is Kyrsten Sinema the Democrats’ Christine O’Donnell”?  (Though Sinema mainly seemed to be going for an aesthetic artistic statement with her political activism.)

These matters may or may not be sinking Krysten Sinema.  I see the flood of conservative media online declaring her dead because of this deluge of old “gaffes” from her days as a Green Party anti-war activist.  But then I see the polls… and?
Postdebate poll shows Sinema leading McSally in Arizona’s Senate race.
The best I get now is that she was ahead but within the margin of error but is now behind but within the margin of error.  There is value in banging a narrative into existence, and sometimes it is successful in politics, and also even if we have a “law of diminishing returns” where this shifts it by a point or two that may just be what you need to split the divided electorate… but as of now… that’s what we have.

And here’s something from the publication of the John Birch Society proclaiming Sinema crazy.  One of the issues they cite her for is something about claiming Bush was poisoning the water supply with arsenic.  (I daresay it was probably criticism of lax corporate friendly regulation.)  This from the John Birch Society, who… you know… fluoride.

Texas:   Y’know.  At the end of the 2008 presidential candidae — with candidate Barack Obama having more money than he knew what to do with en route to a large victory, Obama dumped money into multiplayer internet video game ads.  See too Beto O’Rourke for social media en route to… probably a loss… with more money than he knows what to do with.

Something a little odd about this odd variation of the old “stealing lawn sign” controversy

Earlier that Tuesday, the sign caught the attention of Sid Miller, the Texas agriculture commissioner. Miller, who was reportedly on President Trump’s shortlist for U.S. agriculture secretary, posted pictures of the sign on his Facebook page and claimed that the girl depicted was one of Kavanaugh’s young daughters.
“The Democrat sleaze knows NO bounds,” Miller, who’s again running for agriculture commissioner, wrote in a post that was later shared more than a thousand times.

On the “young daughter” claim … this is a put-on on his part… he knows he’s making that detail up, doesn’t he?

Tennessee:  Odd.  I thought this old issue, which popped up in a “er?” in the 2004 elections, had long been settled.

The Vanderbilt poll was much different from other recent polls, which had significantly found Blackburn with a comfortable lead. A New York Times poll conducted during the same time frame placed Blackburn 14 points ahead of Bredesen. However, critics had questioned the methodology of the NYT poll, which they say only polled voters with landlines — eliminating the younger demographic that is more likely to vote for Bredesen.

I doubt it accounts for the eleven… fourteen… fifteen… point swing in polls, though.

North Dakota:  Chuck Hagel is swinging by to save Heidi Heitkamp’s campaign.  Last resort of a desperate Democrat in the rural prairies… in 2012, Bill Clinton swung in in Obama’s stead to pump Heitkamp up.  This year… we’re moving on to the former Republican Senator of Nebraska.

Mississippi.  So

One interesting snippet from the polling, though: While Hyde-Smith is beating Espy in head-to-head polls, Espy is beating McDaniel in head-to-head polling. Marist showed the Democrat up as much as 8 points on Republican McDaniel. If the election goes to a McDaniel-Espy runoff, there’s still an off chance that Mississippi could surprise us all.

Lars Larson has endorsed McDaniel.  So we’re off to the races?

Nevada.  Or… Californevada.