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Micro and Macro Senate

Thursday, October 14th, 2004

Go to the comments for “COBURN WARNS OF “RAMPANT LESBIANISM.”… The comments relate to Coburn’s concern over what’s a’happening to Southeast Oklahoma schools:

The Tom Coburn comment: “Our [campaign] rep down here in the southeast area, he lives in Colgate and travels out of Atoka. He was telling me lesbianism is so rampant in some of the schools in southeast Oklahoma that they’ll only let one girl go to the bathroom. Now think about it. Think about that issue. How is it that that’s happened to us?”

Liberal Media Watcher: I comment like that is not going to hurt Coburn. This is not California or New York, this is Oklahoma.
Coburn has regain alot of the support he lost over the last couple of weeks.
You notice carson isn’t jumping all of this b/c he knows it would be the kiss of death to be seen has stand up for the radical homosexual lobby.
Liberal Media Watcher

Proud Dem: That must be why this race is a toss up, instead of safe R. Humphries would have been able to win. Coburn is a stupid version of Alan Keyes. He can’t open his mouth without saying something stupid.

Corey: I think that Coburn and his former choice for President, Alan Keyes may be engaging in an inside joke, trying to outdo each other on the campaign trail.
Tomorrow, is the first Keyes-Obama debate. I bet Alan Keyes is going to come out with something real good in order to one up Coburn!

Ethan Quinn: I don’t think the fact that they are talking about homosexuals hurts as much as the fac that Coburn just made shit up. Lying usually doesn’t go down well in any state.

Corey: Democrats should probably feel they would be better off having someone like the anti-gay Coburn in office so they can vilify him and use him to raise money, than they would with the anti-gay Carson.
…………………

The odd thing about these comments — from across the political spectrum — is that they are all very prescient. Occasionally contradictory (does the bizarre comment hurt or help Coburn? And why does it hurt or help Coburn? What’s the trade-off for the nation’s Democrats in a vote for Daschle over Frist to organize the Senate with a vote against much of what they care for and for much of what they don’t?), but even in the contradictions we find the nuggets of truth.

Stare at the Senate races that are going to decide which party controls the chamber, and a vague sense of dread washes over me. Meet the Press has been airing debates between some of the Senate candidates: Oklahoma? The Democrat is running off of support for all of Bush’s major initiatives. The Republican looks like a goofy version of Alan Keyes (the only Congressional figure to endorse him for the nomination in 2000), is the great hope of the Club of Growth (whose major goals are to replace the tax code with either a national sales tax or a flat tax; to shrink the size of government to that size where you could drown it in your bathtub [and here we get into a Leninist argument that’s best described with Andrew Sullivan’s disgust at the political system: one party supports solvent big government, the other insolvent big government. The Insolvent Big Government is useful because it de-legitimizes gummint and forces drastic cuts in the future.], and to get something named after Ronald Reagan in every county in the USA.). To his credit, Coburn has some problems with the Patriot Act — an area of concern that Brad Carson, for the sake of proving he ain’t no liberal — can’t come near.

With the Colorado race, Tim Russert asked the question “Knowing what you know now — no WMDs — would Congress have authorized the use of force in Iraq?” The Democratic candidate answered with a slightly more hawkish straddle than Kerry. The Republican candidate provided us with the answer that common sense dictates is the correct answer to the question: “No.”

I don’t want to touch the plight of Tom Daschle.

In a week, everybody’s going to know how things are shaking up in Kentucky… which may end up being the Upset of the Election year. The national trend line this election cycle seems to be that the Republicans are losing their minds (to wit I refer to the Illinois Republican Party for picking Alan Keyes, and comments made by him, Tom Coburn, and Jim DeMint). In the case of Kentucky, that… sadly for him… appears to be the case… literally. (And, yes, that is a mean and insensitive joke.) (Since I already directed the readers to politics1 and I’m too lazy to dig up a different summary of Kentucky events, I’ll direct everyone to “WHAT’S THE STORY WITH SENATOR BUNNING?”

Anyway: I made some changes with the parlor game that is the listings of Senate races. The Republican longshot pick-up opportunites seem to have not gotten the momentum that they’d need. Kentucky has opened up somewhat for the Democrats. Pennsylvania, what with the Republican Senator that National Review called “The Senate’s Worst Republican” and a strong 3rd party challenge from the right-wing Constitution party — remains there. It’s… fairly interesting. The Democratic Party had a bad hand going in, and have managed to come out well. But I don’t know what the meaning of 51 people corralled together who slap themselves on the back due to nothing but a shared “D” after their name means in connection with a second Bush term or a first Kerry term.

The Chechans are Coming! The Chechans are Coming!

Wednesday, October 13th, 2004

I’ll get to the questions in a moment.

U.S. security officials are investigating a recent intelligence report that 25 Chechen militants illegally entered the United States from Mexico in July.

The group, linked to separatists in Chechnya that took part in the deadly Beslan school siege last month, reportedly crossed into a mountainous part of Arizona from northern Mexico, wearing backpacks, The Washington Times reported, citing officials speaking on conditions of anonymity.

The area was said to be difficult for U.S. border guards to monitor.

The intelligence report was supplied to the U.S. government in late August or early September and was based on information from an intelligence source that has been proved reliable in other instances, one official was quoted as saying.

Never mind the veracity of the Washington Times.

Do the Chechan Separatists want to annex Arizona?

Perhaps a school sieze in Southwestern America would advance their cause in some way that I’m not seeing. (Or should I just lump them into the overall al Qaeda bag of Worldwide pre-millenial religious revival by gunpoint, and go from there.)

Or perhaps I demur to “Things that Make You Go Hm.”, the specific half of which proved to be a farce.

Excerpts of Interest

Tuesday, October 12th, 2004

October 8, 2004:

KERRY: I’ve asked in my security briefings why that is, and I can’t go into all the answers, et cetera, but let me say this to you.

This president and his administration have told you and all of us it’s not a question of when, it’s a question of — excuse me — not a question of if, it’s a question of when. We’ve been told that.

The when I can’t tell you. Between the World Trade Center bombing in, what was it, 1993 or so, and the next time was five years, seven years. These people wait. They’ll plan. They plot.

I agree with the president that we have to go after them and get them wherever they are. I just think I can do that far more effectively, because the most important weapon in doing that is intelligence. You’ve got to have the best intelligence in the world. […]

GIBSON: I want to extend for a minute, Senator. And I’m curious about something you said. You said, “It’s not when, but if.” You think it’s inevitable because the sense of security is a very basic thing with everybody in this country worried about their kids.

KERRY: Well, the president and his experts have told America that it’s not a question of if; it’s a question of when. And I accept what the president has said. These terrorists are serious, they’re deadly, and they know nothing except trying to kill.

I understand that. That’s why I will never stop at anything to hunt down and kill the terrorists.

But you heard the president just say to you that we’ve added money.

Folks, the test is not if you’ve added money; the test is that you’ve done everything possible to make America secure. He chose a tax cut for wealthy Americans over the things that I listed to you.

NY Times Magazine, October 10, 2004

Kerry: “We have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they’re a nuisance. As a former law enforcement person, I know we’re never going to end prostitution. We’re never going to end illegal gambling. But we’re going to reduce it, organized crime, to a level where it isn’t on the rise. It isn’t threatening people’s lives every day, and fundamentally, it’s something that you continue to fight, but it’s not threatening the fabric of your life.”

August 26, 2004

Bush: “They’ve seen me make decisions, they’ve seen me under trying times, they’ve seen me weep, they’ve seen me laugh, they’ve seen me hug,”

August 30, 2004

George W Bush: When asked “Can we win?” the war on terror, Bush said, “I don’t think you can win it. But I think you can create conditions so that the — those who use terror as a tool are — less acceptable in parts of the world.”

(Later had to redefine the terms so that he could obliterate that damned “nuance” — the great enemy of human civilization — and “Be a He-Man”)

Some of it leaves me a little woozy.

(See also Mixed Signals

Special Righteousness Committee Returns

Tuesday, October 12th, 2004

Looks like the “Special Righteousness Committee” has slapped down $500 (or however much a voter pamphlet argument costs these days) each for several pamphlet spots for more sarcastic gags against Oregon Measure 36.

They did this in 2000.

Here they are.

Read the first three. They always manage to get first dibs on these voters pamphlets…

Like in 2000

When I overheard someone say, “I don’t get it. I open up the voters’ pamphlet and read the ‘For 9’ arguments and they’re all against the measure. I was like ‘whatever’.” (that’s a very accurate paraphrase, by the way.)

Anyway, I urge a “Yes” vote on Measure 36. We don’t want Oregon to start looking like Eastern Oklahoma, where they can only have one girl go to the bathroom at a time… do we?

Don’t answer that.

Suit-Gate

Monday, October 11th, 2004

I have just one thing to add to the controversy.

Feb 11: “Transcript of Bush’s WMD Speech. Feb 13: Of Course, (Take particular notice of the audio clip, if it is still working — I do not know.

Other things to look for: who was Bush talking to when he yelled out — out of the blue — “Let me finish!”? And when did the debate turn into an utter disaster for Bush (enough time for the thing to malfunction)?

Are we barking up absurdity? As absurd as the need for Cheney to accompany Bush for the 9/11 Commission interview.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Oregon

Monday, October 11th, 2004

1988 saw Oregon go into the Democratic hands. The ten states that went to Dukakis, along with the big state of California, served as the base to which Clinton operated to expand to a winning coalition. (The Democrats went into a major funk assembling any coherent electoral strategy from 1972 through 1984, unable to figure out how to handle the previously solidly Democratic South.)

Prior to that, Oregon had reliably gone to the Republican candidate. Indeed, here’s the map that Reagan was working with from 1976.

The Senate delegation has one Republican and one Democrat, who because they’ve agreed not to hurt each other politically end up buttressing the other candidate politically. Gordon Smith is considered a “moderate”, though it depends on which audience he’s speaking before… equally comfortable speaking before the Christian Coalition and with an endorsement from the biggest figure in Oregon’s Gay Community. The Democrat, Ron Wyden, is perhaps the Dweebiest member of Congress, and has high hopes of turning Oregon into a bastion of nano-technology, and whose major forays into the national spotlight have involved government – technology privacy concerns (“Total Information Awareness” and that whole “Terror Markets” things.) For his part, he voted for the Medicare Bill, saying only that he planned on working to “Reform the Reform Bill” later on.

The Congressional Delegation consists of one Republican — safely in control over a large swatch of Eastern Oregon, and four Democrats… two of them in districts where potentially a Republican might dislodge them, one of them just quirky enough to be safe, and the other firmly enscorched from the most Democratic parts of Portland.

Gore won Oregon in 2000 by a pittance — in large part because this was one of Nader’s stronger states. On the other hand, Oregon has a much stronger base for the Republican party than their neighbor to the North — their rural communities are a bit more rural than Washington’s and the state politics are a little more polarized. (Population ratio between the rural / urban divide being more one-sided in Washington.)

Once again, flip the colors– Red now equals Democrat and Blue equals Republican. I’m going backward from 2000 back to 1960. See if you can spot Portland, Astoria, Eugene, and manage to figure out what the shifting counties represent. (Apparently Ashland isn’t quite big enough to push aside Medford.)











Meet the Press

Monday, October 11th, 2004

Last week, Meet the Press broadcasted a debate between the Senate candidates for the great red state of Oklahoma. This week, they aired a debate between between the Senate Candidates — Ken Salazar and Pete Coors — of the great purple state of Colorado. Read the transcript here… I did.

What we really need to see is the great debate between Pete Coors and Gene Amondson or Earl Dodge, the presidential candidates of the splintered Prohibition Party. These two candidates have ballot access in Colorado (and one of them is on the ballot in Louisiana), and I guess their big foe would have to be Colorado’s beer magnate… who happens to be running for the Senate.

Nothing too notable, and you don’t want to hitch your wagon to either candidate as the Great Last Ditch Hope for American Democracy. But, here’s the quiz for the day: Which candidate ran this ad?

Announcer #1: Osama bin Laden: Should he face the death penalty for murdering 3,000 Americans? [Other candidate] says no. Unbelievable.

Ugh. While we’re at it, “Patty Murray has a different opinion of Osama Bin Laden.”

The answer, in case you’re curious: Ken Salazar.

We turn to this exchange, after Coors comes out full force against gay marriage and gay adoption, and I’ll take my leave there.:

MR. RUSSERT: Then let me ask you about that. You have a brochure that I’ve read through which you’ve put out and distributed around the state, and you quote this article. “Coors…talked about how his great-grandfather emigrated to the United States and founded the Golden brewery in 1873. `Our company’s values are our family’s values,’ he said. `And our family’s values are Colorado’s values; …These are the values that I will bring to the United States Senate.'”

And then this on Tuesday from the Rocky Mountain News: “Pete Coors’ company will be among the sponsors of the Black & Blue 2004 Festival in Montreal, a weeklong gay benefit”–that begins tonight– “that attracts up to 80,000 people to events such as the Leather Rail, Raunch Fetish Night and a male nude revue. …Coors Light is one of two free beers that will be served at the official launch cocktail party. …Pete Coors is a social conservative who has campaigned against gay marriage.” And yet you oppose gay marriage, you oppose gay adoption. Why the conflict between the marketing your company does, which in effect tries to pander to the gay community, and these positions which are opposed to those taken by the gay community?

MR. COORS: Look, I’m very proud of our company. We’ve done many good things for lots of people in Colorado and around the country. I don’t–you used the word “pandering.” One of the values of our company is that we respect all of our employees and their hard work. We respect their passion, their integrity. One of our qualities or our values include equality, and that’s a company issue. It’s a company position. I feel very strongly that that’s the way it should be. Companies ought to be able to make decisions on how they deal with these issues.

MR. RUSSERT: You see no inconsistency between sponsoring male nude revues and fetish balls, and opposing gay adoption and gay marriage?

MR. COORS: I don’t.

MR. RUSSERT: None whatsoever.

MR. COORS: No.

MR. RUSSERT: And you’re comfortable sponsoring those kinds of events? That’s part of traditional family values?

MR. COORS: Look, this is a very–you know, people are going to have a lot of different ideas about what this is all about. But it is about recognizing that everybody–everyone in this country should be valued for what they are, and I believe that’s the way we recognize it at our company.

Gene Amondson would’ve nailed him.

Montana

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

Montana 2000
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 240,178 58.44% 3
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 137,126 33.36%
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 24,437 5.95%
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 5,697 1.39%

National 2000 :
George W Bush Richard Cheney Republican 50,460,110 47.87%
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 51,003,926 48.38%
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 2,883,105 2.73%
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 449,225 0.43% 0 0.00%

Montana 1996
Robert Dole Jack Kemp Republican 179,652 44.11% 3
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 167,922 41.23%
H. Ross Perot James Campbell Reform 55,229 13.56%

National 1996
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 47,400,125 49.23%
Robert Dole Jack Kemp Republican 39,198,755 40.72%
H. Ross Perot Pat Choate Reform 8,085,402 8.40%

Montana 1992
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 154,507 37.63% 3
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 144,207 35.12% 0
H. Ross Perot James Stockdale Independent 107,225 26.12% 0

National 1992
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 44,909,806 43.01%
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 39,104,550 37.45%
H. Ross Perot James Stockdale Independent 19,743,821 18.91%

Montana 1988
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 190,412 52.07% 4
Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen Democrat 168,936 46.20%

National 1988
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 48,886,597 53.37%
Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen Democratic 41,809,476 45.65%

What’s my point? I don’t really know. I’m being completely random here. The 2000 map is supposedly the map of equilibrium for the two parties, where relative strength of one party in one state can be compared to relative strength in another state… but, I expect some “Red States” states to become more blue and some blue states to become more red.

Watch Montana through the elections from 1960 to 2000, but first flip your conceptions of what parties are blue and red because the curator of the website where these maps come from have blue = Republicans and red = Democrats. 1960 was something of an election at equilibrium. It’s pretty easy to figure out where Billings and Butte are. (little help?) What other splotches represent may be a bit trickier.











Geo-Political

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

From a “deckerd”, in a partisan message board that I look at relatively infrequently. (I do have about 20 posts accumulated over a span of two and a half years. I find the discussions a bit… echo chambered.)

The blue area between the southern tip of Illinois and New Orleans covers at least half of the area known as the Mississippi Delta, a gigantic, drained swamp once covered in plantations (and home of the blues). The Delta was once 80% slaves in population and is today a dustbowl of pollution and over-fertilization.

(My father grew up on a farm in Northern LA, where the surpassing racism of white inhabitants has kept the tide of blue from washing south to New Orleans powered by disenfranchised black voters. Notice the difference on the ARk/LA border? As recently as 2000, a National Geographic reporter went hitch-hiking through the Delta and reported back that “the coming race war” was the #1 most popular topic amongst the white farmers and fishermen he met.)

2. South Carolina – Dem support isn’t coastal. Instead, it’s one county inland.

The Black Belt (the giant crescent of blue that runs from Alabama to SC) ends in South Carolina, but actually the entire Coastal Plain in South Carolina and Georgia (the area south and east of that crescent) was once a drained swamp, just like the Delta and the vast majority of residents were ex-slaves on rice plantations, including the Gullah people of the Sea Islands. The coasts have now been overrun by millionaire estates and the Sea Islands have literally been ethnically cleansed of Gullah farmers and fishermen who had lived for centuries on land which Sherman had given to them, this land was repatriated to the plantation owners by subsequent Republican presidents after Lincoln died and the descendents of the plantation owners have sold the entire Sea Islands out from under them to build “gated communities” that are walled off from the remaining Gullah-owned communities (really just hamlets on land that were once given over to the slaves as commons, or Freedmen’s Villages). They can’t even leave the island on the car ferry unless they live or work in one of the (essentially white only) gated communities, because the developers own the ferries. That is why the lowlands of the Carolinas are solidly blue EXCEPT for the coastal areas.

The Black Belt Actually extends all the way to northern MS. It’s that crescent of blue.

It is actually a geological feature which is named (allegedly) after the rich black soil found in the region.

It is a giant alluvial fan skirting the roots of the Appalachian Mountains, (the southern end of Appalachia is in North-Eastern Alabama).

Cotton Plantations cover(ed) the entire area, and white sharecroppers couldn’t afford the land.

Other proof that Geography = Destiny:

Why is Half of WV Blue and the other half Red? Why is eastern Tennessee and Western VA Red? It’s always been that way. The “Great Valley” is another continuous geological feature populated entirely by a certain group, Germans and Scots Irish Revolutionary War veterans who revolted against Washington. The area along the Great Valley is a series of parallel ridges and valleys running from Alabama to the Delaware River (NJ border). The Great Valley itself extends all the way from Alabama to Lake Champlain in VT. It is unobstructed by any hills or ranges.

Because these valleys are so unobstructed they were rapidly settled by a single group, disgruntled sharecroppers and ex-indentured servants after the Rev. War. Their descendants are rabidly Republican of the old school, libertarian/xenophobic/right to work type. The Great Valley in WV, MD, and PA is the home base for the northeastern KKK; the Cumberland Gap is part of the Valley which connects Tennessee to Virginia and is the home base for the Southern Baptist convention.

The low-lying Appalachian Plateau to the west is much more rugged and was settled by miners and European Immigrants. It is heavily unionized in parts, while other parts are simply isolated. No valleys or continuous geographical features connect the various counties and hollows to each other demographically but this area (centered on the Ohio River valley between Pittsburgh, PA and the VA/Kentucky border) is traditionally heavily unionized and old-school, populist Democratic.

This is the area where mountaintop removal has hurt Dems tremendously as a wedge issue because there is no flat land there, few jobs, and few environmentalists. Unfortunate because mountaintop removal is tremendously destructive.

Interesting fact: all the “peaks” in the Appalachian coal mining areas are the same elevation. If you go to the top the horizon looks flat. Most of Appalachia is a heavily eroded plateau, not a mountain range. It’s actually more rugged because it’s so heavily eroded.

The mountains proper, and the Great Valley on the eastern side of the Appalachians are home to rugged Republican mountain folk who still hate Roosevelt for kicking them out of Shenendoah National Park.

Since You Asked…

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

Is Jerry Springer a Kerry supporter?

Well, he had an exploratory commission to decide whether or not to run for the Senate from Ohio as a Democrat. He was a Democratic Mayor of Cincinatti. he was a delegate to the Democratic Convention. And, he’s thinking of running for governor of Ohio. (The word on the street is that if Ohio doesn’t send their electoral votes to Kerry, the state party will remain weak enough that he will end up the Democrat’s nominee for governor. Other than that…)

The answer is “yes”. Unless you want to read something into his chances for the governship.

john kerry a skull?
Well, he has a skull.

What does the f stand for in john kerry?

Forbes.

Is hunter s thompson a bones men
No. Singular. Not plural. And not even that.

Does the angel in the whirlwind still direct the storm?
That’s a loaded question.

Sisters born with there head stuck to there skull.

Ross perot forced to make a secret deal.
That I want to know.

How do i make a donation to the kerry campaign?
I believe it’s too late now.

picture of john kerry burning the flag
I can photoshop something for you if you’d like.

Will satan help george bush win the election?
Only time will tell.

Who has more royal bloodlines: Bill Clinton or Bob Dole?
Dole. Actually, in the same spirit as the revelation that Kerry is the 9th cousin twice removed of George W., it’s probably a tie.

Smurf Sex?
No thank you.

stories about a girl noticing a bulge in the back of her red pants
With that I take my leave.