lackluster impressions
Tuesday, March 31st, 2026It is basically a given that the Democrats are going to win the House, though I have a huge that anything less than a measure of 60 freaking plus seats is a bit of a “who cares?” in assessing political strait-jackets. Or probably moreso and tangibly the Democrats winning the Senate. Everything short of that is a rudderless “yeah, 2022 — and the voters have spoken”, false hope for Biden. The tea-leaves grow though — a 10 plus Florida state Senate special election swings Democrat, some 20 plus seat is won by a few points. The matter of the second greatest House exodus in a century by Republican retiring Congress people is tempered a bit — normally one retired because it is no fun to be in the minority — in the Trump / Johnson era of Steve Bannon crowing that the Congress is now functioning as the Russian Duma does it is not any fun to be in the majority either.
The big question in polling, if you ask and tabulate the question of who the electorate voted for in 2024, would the results come back that Harris won — similar to Democratic polling in 1974 finding McGovern beat Nixon. My bunch is no, that the great “price of eggs are just too fanned high and they weren’t five years ago” chunk of low propensity “guard against trans athletes” vote post Trump grumbling voters will split in two directions — Biden and Harris. Some will only have a vague recall Harris was on the ballot, and the great election day trending question “Did Biden drop out?” will shade into the rest.
Comically, multiple states the Democratic Senate candidate is not a Democrat, but an “Independent”, not a sign of a firm party. Nebraska, naturally. Montana, though that one came about situationally with the classic “Incumbent drops out five before filing deadline with hand picked successor knowing to pounce”. At least the Alaska hasn’t folded off in that manner.
