Archive for May, 2016

and the Democrats for Trump

Saturday, May 7th, 2016

Things you can look forward to seeing over the next six months.

Julie McClelland is a registered Democrat. And the stay-at-home mother of three remains undecided ahead of Oregon’s May 17 primary election, which will feature a battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
But come this fall, McClelland, a third-generation Mexican-American from Glide, may lean toward the man who drew a raucous crowd of thousands to the Lane Events Center on Friday night: Donald J. Trump. And though she’s considering voting for Sanders, she’ll never cast her ballot for Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner.
“Never Hillary,” McClelland said at the rally, adding she prefers Trump because he eschews so-called political correctness and has, to this point, self-financed his campaign.

Yes.  I understand the dynamics at work, why Donald Trump is a better bet of getting elected president than Ted Cruz.  Which is that Ted Cruz was not going to win just about, but not quite, all of the votes of Mitt Romney, and not pick up any voters from Obama’s column.  Trump will lose a bunch of Mitt Romney’s voters, and pick up some from Obama.  So it’s somewhere between a historical landslide for Hillary Clinton, and a narrow Trump victory… with, perhaps some odd happenstance that the Celebrity Wave will commence — previous non-voters deciding “Hey!  Cool!  Schwarzenegger!”  [I don’t know if this long, long six month stint heightens or decreases the possibility.]

And so comes the hammering on trade agreements, to remind downscale Democrats whatfor they dislike about Clinton and the Establishment Democrats.

So far the balance is majorly in Hillary Clinton’s favor, and it’s possible — even likely — it will stay that way.  But in the meantime, to keep things amusing… every “Trump Democrat”will be found and reported by the news media’s coverage of these rallies. So… if you’re reading these stories, you will meet a greater proportion of Trump Democrats than exist in the real world.

As for this voter… deciding between Hillary or Bernie in the primary, and “Never Hillary” in the General… um… why even vote in the primary?

we’ll see how many peel away from never trumping

Wednesday, May 4th, 2016

Glenn Beck doesn’t see a Republican President ever happening again.  He is, of course, insane and embarking on some hyperbolic End Times Gambit.  Every party gets to be the Whig Party, right on the edge of collapse, seemingly every other year.

And making a bit more sense than Glenn Beck or David Brooks in assessing the coming of Trump…
George Will wants a 50 state victory for Hillary Clinton

Were he to be nominated, conservatives would have two tasks. One would be to help him lose 50 states — condign punishment for his comprehensive disdain for conservative essentials, including the manners and grace that should lubricate the nation’s civic life. Second, conservatives can try to save from the anti-Trump undertow as many senators, representatives, governors and state legislators as possible.

My best guess is he’d prefer that with a third party that keeps Hillary below the 50 percent threshold.  Though that’s with it’s risk.

Perhaps, but it’s more likely that dueling presidential candidates would put House and Senate Republican candidates in a perilous spot. Do they support Mr. Trump or the third-party conservative? If they are forced to choose, they could alienate enough GOP voters to ensure defeat. Consider how gingerly Mike Pence, the Indiana Governor running for re-election this year, handled his state’s GOP primary last week. He said he’s voting for Ted Cruz while also praising Mr. Trump.
GOP incumbents in swing states will be in a tough enough position being asked at every turn what they think about Mr. Trump’s latest rhetorical or policy eruption. Better for them to navigate issue-by-issue around the Trump black-swan candidacy while demonstrating their own convictions and independence.

Well… there’s always the Libertarian Party.  Maybe?
They’ll get above that one percent that they were shooting for in 2012.  That’s the extent of my prediction.

All of which — the David Brooks George Will Glenn Beck decision to not vote for Donald Trump and either vote for Hillary or try some third party or not vote for the top ballot — is viewed by your Kurt Nimmo (Alex Jones figures) as “Last ditch effort to deny Donald Trump the White House“, as opposed to… not voting or advocating against their preferred candidate.

Can Keith Judd do it again?

Wednesday, May 4th, 2016

I’m curious to see how this one goes, actually.  The West Virginia Democratic Primary.

On the Democratic side Bernie Sanders is leading with 45% to 37% for Hillary Clinton. The 18% of voters who are undecided is unusually high and speaks to the number of registered Democrats in West Virginia who don’t really identify with the national party at this point. Among the undecideds Sanders has a 15/77 favorability rating and Clinton’s even worse off at 12/84 so there may end up being a decent mass of voters who just don’t vote for either of the candidates.

The state that went for Stevenson 1952, Humphrey 1968, Carter 1980, and Dukakis 1988.  Signs that they would go for the “Democratic Socialism” in 2016?  But in 2008, past the point where Obama had essentially sealed the nomination, Hillary thumped Obama by 40, and where a veritable weirdo garnered 40 percent plus of the vote against the incumbent Obama in 2012 — from a prison cell (emulating the campaign of actual socialist Eugene Debs?)

Somehow the more telling election is the 2012 than the 2008, considering the party that’s supposed to lose, Hillary, was the overwhelming victor in 2008.

According to the wikipedia page, the candidates on the ballot:

Hillary Clinton
Rocky De La Fuente
Paul T. Farrell Jr.

Keith Judd
Martin O’Malley (stuck on the ballot)
Bernie Sanders

Notable that Keith Judd is again on the ballot, so it’s possible he could be advantaged by that increase name recognition, even if voters selecting don’t quite know who they’re voting for.

The story-line suggests that if Donald Trump were on the ballot, he would carry a good swarth of the Democratic vote.  Perhaps come in second.  Perhaps first?

give it a pass as it’s a remake for basic cable

Monday, May 2nd, 2016
There’s going to be an “Adventures in Babysitting” remake.  Because… why not?
The movie stars Disney Channel favorites Sabrina Carpenter and Sofia Carson as a pair of rival babysitters who are forced to work together when one of the children they’re charged with watching goes missing. It’s a modern take on the 1980s film of the same name that starred Elisabeth Shue and Anthony Rapp. In the Shue version, her babysitter met with car thieves, gangs, and had one of her charges stuck on the outside of a skyscraper, so expect plenty of comparable shenanigans.
Comparable shenanigans?
With all due respect to the director of Adventures in Babysitting, Chris Colombus, he helped create one of the most racist films in American cinematic history.
Seen this formulation before…
But please consider the plot:
A white girl (Elizabeth Shue, lightyears from her work in Leaving Las Vegas) is baby-sitting several white kids, when she gets a desperate phone call from her white girl friend. Why is her white girl friend desperate? Because she is stuck in a downtown bus station, surrounded by (gasp) African Americans!
When Shue gets downtown, various amusing adventures ensue. But how can it be ignored that each of the adventures involves meeting someone who lives in the inner city who is African American. And every single African American she meets is a criminal. There is only one exception: (are you ready? ‘spoiler’ ahead!): the African Americans who sing and dance!
Colombus must have been very disappointed that Steppin Fetchit (who adopted that stage name as a joke) was not alive and could not appear in his film.
There is one African American who helps Shue and who does not sing and dance. (Spoiler ahead) I kept hoping he would turn out to be an undercover cop. But, no, he was a car thief.
Actually it’s along the lines of safe, secure Suburbanites struck in the the big scary city, (the car gets a bunch of flat tires right when it enters the city, right?)  but that is arguably the same matter.  Somewhere in the denoument we have the characters forced — something at gun point? — to sing the blues about babysitting.  Don’t know how the remake would handle this one — best guess is that the 1980s not being the 2010s, there’s someone in the back double and triple and quadruple checking for whiffs of “micro-aggression”.