Archive for October, 2004

Montana

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

Montana 2000
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 240,178 58.44% 3
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 137,126 33.36%
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 24,437 5.95%
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 5,697 1.39%

National 2000 :
George W Bush Richard Cheney Republican 50,460,110 47.87%
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 51,003,926 48.38%
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 2,883,105 2.73%
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 449,225 0.43% 0 0.00%

Montana 1996
Robert Dole Jack Kemp Republican 179,652 44.11% 3
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 167,922 41.23%
H. Ross Perot James Campbell Reform 55,229 13.56%

National 1996
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 47,400,125 49.23%
Robert Dole Jack Kemp Republican 39,198,755 40.72%
H. Ross Perot Pat Choate Reform 8,085,402 8.40%

Montana 1992
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 154,507 37.63% 3
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 144,207 35.12% 0
H. Ross Perot James Stockdale Independent 107,225 26.12% 0

National 1992
William Clinton Albert Gore Jr. Democratic 44,909,806 43.01%
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 39,104,550 37.45%
H. Ross Perot James Stockdale Independent 19,743,821 18.91%

Montana 1988
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 190,412 52.07% 4
Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen Democrat 168,936 46.20%

National 1988
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 48,886,597 53.37%
Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen Democratic 41,809,476 45.65%

What’s my point? I don’t really know. I’m being completely random here. The 2000 map is supposedly the map of equilibrium for the two parties, where relative strength of one party in one state can be compared to relative strength in another state… but, I expect some “Red States” states to become more blue and some blue states to become more red.

Watch Montana through the elections from 1960 to 2000, but first flip your conceptions of what parties are blue and red because the curator of the website where these maps come from have blue = Republicans and red = Democrats. 1960 was something of an election at equilibrium. It’s pretty easy to figure out where Billings and Butte are. (little help?) What other splotches represent may be a bit trickier.











Geo-Political

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

From a “deckerd”, in a partisan message board that I look at relatively infrequently. (I do have about 20 posts accumulated over a span of two and a half years. I find the discussions a bit… echo chambered.)

The blue area between the southern tip of Illinois and New Orleans covers at least half of the area known as the Mississippi Delta, a gigantic, drained swamp once covered in plantations (and home of the blues). The Delta was once 80% slaves in population and is today a dustbowl of pollution and over-fertilization.

(My father grew up on a farm in Northern LA, where the surpassing racism of white inhabitants has kept the tide of blue from washing south to New Orleans powered by disenfranchised black voters. Notice the difference on the ARk/LA border? As recently as 2000, a National Geographic reporter went hitch-hiking through the Delta and reported back that “the coming race war” was the #1 most popular topic amongst the white farmers and fishermen he met.)

2. South Carolina – Dem support isn’t coastal. Instead, it’s one county inland.

The Black Belt (the giant crescent of blue that runs from Alabama to SC) ends in South Carolina, but actually the entire Coastal Plain in South Carolina and Georgia (the area south and east of that crescent) was once a drained swamp, just like the Delta and the vast majority of residents were ex-slaves on rice plantations, including the Gullah people of the Sea Islands. The coasts have now been overrun by millionaire estates and the Sea Islands have literally been ethnically cleansed of Gullah farmers and fishermen who had lived for centuries on land which Sherman had given to them, this land was repatriated to the plantation owners by subsequent Republican presidents after Lincoln died and the descendents of the plantation owners have sold the entire Sea Islands out from under them to build “gated communities” that are walled off from the remaining Gullah-owned communities (really just hamlets on land that were once given over to the slaves as commons, or Freedmen’s Villages). They can’t even leave the island on the car ferry unless they live or work in one of the (essentially white only) gated communities, because the developers own the ferries. That is why the lowlands of the Carolinas are solidly blue EXCEPT for the coastal areas.

The Black Belt Actually extends all the way to northern MS. It’s that crescent of blue.

It is actually a geological feature which is named (allegedly) after the rich black soil found in the region.

It is a giant alluvial fan skirting the roots of the Appalachian Mountains, (the southern end of Appalachia is in North-Eastern Alabama).

Cotton Plantations cover(ed) the entire area, and white sharecroppers couldn’t afford the land.

Other proof that Geography = Destiny:

Why is Half of WV Blue and the other half Red? Why is eastern Tennessee and Western VA Red? It’s always been that way. The “Great Valley” is another continuous geological feature populated entirely by a certain group, Germans and Scots Irish Revolutionary War veterans who revolted against Washington. The area along the Great Valley is a series of parallel ridges and valleys running from Alabama to the Delaware River (NJ border). The Great Valley itself extends all the way from Alabama to Lake Champlain in VT. It is unobstructed by any hills or ranges.

Because these valleys are so unobstructed they were rapidly settled by a single group, disgruntled sharecroppers and ex-indentured servants after the Rev. War. Their descendants are rabidly Republican of the old school, libertarian/xenophobic/right to work type. The Great Valley in WV, MD, and PA is the home base for the northeastern KKK; the Cumberland Gap is part of the Valley which connects Tennessee to Virginia and is the home base for the Southern Baptist convention.

The low-lying Appalachian Plateau to the west is much more rugged and was settled by miners and European Immigrants. It is heavily unionized in parts, while other parts are simply isolated. No valleys or continuous geographical features connect the various counties and hollows to each other demographically but this area (centered on the Ohio River valley between Pittsburgh, PA and the VA/Kentucky border) is traditionally heavily unionized and old-school, populist Democratic.

This is the area where mountaintop removal has hurt Dems tremendously as a wedge issue because there is no flat land there, few jobs, and few environmentalists. Unfortunate because mountaintop removal is tremendously destructive.

Interesting fact: all the “peaks” in the Appalachian coal mining areas are the same elevation. If you go to the top the horizon looks flat. Most of Appalachia is a heavily eroded plateau, not a mountain range. It’s actually more rugged because it’s so heavily eroded.

The mountains proper, and the Great Valley on the eastern side of the Appalachians are home to rugged Republican mountain folk who still hate Roosevelt for kicking them out of Shenendoah National Park.

Since You Asked…

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

Is Jerry Springer a Kerry supporter?

Well, he had an exploratory commission to decide whether or not to run for the Senate from Ohio as a Democrat. He was a Democratic Mayor of Cincinatti. he was a delegate to the Democratic Convention. And, he’s thinking of running for governor of Ohio. (The word on the street is that if Ohio doesn’t send their electoral votes to Kerry, the state party will remain weak enough that he will end up the Democrat’s nominee for governor. Other than that…)

The answer is “yes”. Unless you want to read something into his chances for the governship.

john kerry a skull?
Well, he has a skull.

What does the f stand for in john kerry?

Forbes.

Is hunter s thompson a bones men
No. Singular. Not plural. And not even that.

Does the angel in the whirlwind still direct the storm?
That’s a loaded question.

Sisters born with there head stuck to there skull.

Ross perot forced to make a secret deal.
That I want to know.

How do i make a donation to the kerry campaign?
I believe it’s too late now.

picture of john kerry burning the flag
I can photoshop something for you if you’d like.

Will satan help george bush win the election?
Only time will tell.

Who has more royal bloodlines: Bill Clinton or Bob Dole?
Dole. Actually, in the same spirit as the revelation that Kerry is the 9th cousin twice removed of George W., it’s probably a tie.

Smurf Sex?
No thank you.

stories about a girl noticing a bulge in the back of her red pants
With that I take my leave.

Predicting Stuff

Sunday, October 10th, 2004

The cover to Sports Illustrated at the beginning of the baseball season:

Sports Illustrated was being cute. What I imagine happened was that he editors of Sports Illustrated had a board meeting where they tossed together a list of the teams with an above .600 record from the previous season, and decided on the team that that would grab the largest circulation and attention.

Thus, the Cubs Win World Series. (Against Miami???) After all, they were five outs away from the World Series last season, when that outfielder chased the ball into the stands where the Cubs fan grabbed the ball away from the Cubs player. (Which was the beginning of 15 Minutes of Fame and Hell that the Cubs fan wishes he didn’t have to endure.)

But the fact that they were five outs away is kind of the point. The Cubs had a reasonably strong season, and were playing for a playoff spot until the final days of the season. But they still suffer from the Curse of the Goat… and, for good measure, they suffered from the Sports Illustrated Cover Curse too. (A Curse that’s easily explained by comparing teams that make the cover of Sports Illustrated with stocks that rise and fall in Stock Market Bubbles.)

Today I notice in the blogosphere the election day predicting parlor game is kicking into gear. How many electoral votes to each candidate, the makeup of the new House, the makeup of the new Senate, the most surprising state to go to one or the other candidate… things like that. I’m thinking that I will put something in the backburner, and not leave it in the backroom until after the election. I don’t want to jinx anything should I predict things that I want to happen, and I don’t want to look like I’m rooting for something should I predict things that I don’t want to happen.

But above all, to anyone who wants to go predicting these things: Don’t try to be cute like Sports Illustrated.

Or do. I don’t care.

Bob Shrum’s Footprints

Saturday, October 9th, 2004

It’s a bit too easy to focus on Bush at the Debate– what with “Anybody But Bush” sentiment sweeping the nation and all that. So what struck me about Kerry? Well, it looks to me like my post “Drew Bledsoe” is pretty well moot.

Bob Shrum lives!

I could dig into the transcript of the debate and focus attention on the particular moments where I thought “Bob Shrum”. It’s not so much actual content, as I think the actual themes worked on by … say… a Paul Begala is probably fairly similar to Bob Shrum’s palette. But it’s this sort of sensibility, with a weird sort of vaccuousness to it.

It stood out like a sore thumb in a clip I heard at a rally with John Edwards after the vice-presidential debate. “Did I fight enough for you?”

Because… you know… all of Bob Shrum’s clients are Fighting for YOU!, or fighting for (name of state)’s Farmers (or name of blue collar profession that is indigenous to district or state.)

George W Sighed.

Saturday, October 9th, 2004

The George Will comment that Al Gore would have won the election had he not sighed during the debate, but Al Gore was incapable of not sighing bounces to the top of my mind.

Somewhere in the middle of yesterday’s debate, I murmured “There it is again.” Bush was becoming irritable, and the visual flubberations were returning.

To paraphrase former Texas Governor Ann Richards on his father “Poor George, he can’t help himself. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth.”

And now it occurs to me: the Law of Diminishing Returns has taken hold. Divorced from all context and without considering the actual content of what anyone said, last night’s debate was a draw.

But to use sports metaphors: this is the continuation of a game, not a whole new game. If Kerry beat Bush by a whopping 10 runs to 0 in Debate 1, if you desire to give Debate 2 to Bush by a run, in the playoff mode we’d have the Deciding Debate 3. (Where we toss the vice presidential debate in, I don’t know. That totally throws off the “Best of Odd Number”, doesn’t it?)

The first debate hangs over everything — the debate held before the baseball playoffs started, the debate watched by the greatest number of viewers, the debate that provided a sort of “first impression”. Everything from here on out is seen through the prism of the first debate.

And Al Gore sighed in the first debate.

Likewise, it has been theorized around the place that… Cheney made Bush look bad, and even if he had managed to perform a bit better (say if Cheney hadn’t just mailed in the domestic side of his debate), he would not have made Edwards look bad. Throw a Martian observer in to examine the debates, and the Martian would conclude that Kerry is the presidential nominee, Edwards is the vice-presidential nominee; and Cheney is the president, and Bush is the vice-president.

(Regarding the rumours of Bush having a feed into him, a story that has reached the NY Times and whose photograph is apparently not photoshopped together — I’ll demur to the Reason blog and post this Reagan-era SNL sketch transcript.)

Timber

Saturday, October 9th, 2004

How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Alternately, how much wood could a woodchuck chunk if a woodchuck could chunk wood?

And how much wood could a woodchunk chuck if a woodchunk could chuck wood?

How much wood could a woodchunk chunk if a woodchunk could chunk wood?

How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck would chuck wood?

One in the Bush is worth two in the barrel.

Bush Comes Out Against the Dred Scot Decision!

Friday, October 8th, 2004

That was… bizarre.

Things that make you go “Hm”

Friday, October 8th, 2004

Where do people vote?

Schools.

What was the news item about terrorism yesterday?

Vague premonitions of vague threats to vague American schools.

What was the news item about terrorism today?

Iraqi insurgents looking at websites with floorplans of specific American schools.

Where are these schools?

Georgia, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon and California.

New Jersey is supposedly the heart of “Security Mom” land…

Not that I’m suggesting anything.

Just curious, can someone point me to a website showing the architectural floor-plans of a K-12 school anywhere? Just curious.