The Moment Clinton Won
Sunday, August 1st, 2004So, we had Clinton in June of 1992– about to put the final death knell in the Democratic Party. (We could argue that he did that anyway, but never mind…). Third place. 9 electoral votes. Negatives up the yahoo.
How did Clinton get himself out of this morass?
He appeared on the Arsenio Hall Show, with a loud tie, sunglasses, playing a saxophone.
Today, everyone appears on these shows — Bob Dole spurred the entire process forward in 1996 by basically announcing his presidential run on Letterman. But back then? It just seemed undignified to Pull a Nixon.
Here was a stab for something more gut-level than any policy. See: the cool man generally wins the presidential election… Eisenhower is cooler than Stevenson, Kennedy is cooler than Nixon, Reagan is cooler than Carter and Mondale… the only reason Bush got in was by default: nobody is dorkier than Dukakis!
From there, he kept the momentum going with a well-planned vice-presidential announcement. Youth and vigor! … If Al Gore can be called “vigor”.
Followed up by a well-scripted convention. Which, theoretically, shouldn’t mean anything, except for the biggie:
Ross Perot jumped out of the race and endorsed Clinton.
Damned it all: I think that pretty much clinched the election!
Clinton then filled the post-convention lag with a bus-trip. Carville didn’t like this idea, thinking it was too “Old DNC”, “the boys of the bus” of the long-ago. But, my guess is Carville’s rejection of the idea masks why it worked: connect with the blue-collar.
After that, it was pretty much a case of holding on tight.
On the other side: when did Bush lose?
It probably started when he vomitted on the Japanese prime minister’s lap — perhaps unfairly putting a dent in his perceived strength (foreign policy). It kicked into full gear when Dan Quayle took a brave stand against Murphy Brown — the yen to the yang of Clinton’s Arsenio appearance — the attack which ensured that the Bushes were going to be fighting the culture war even if they didn’t terribly want to… hitting its fevered pitch at his speech at the convention — coming on like an Avenging Angel.
From there it was just a matter of pretending to be Harry Truman, riding a train through the midwest. A lot of presidential candidates compare themselves to Truman, evoking the 1948 comeback upset he pulled over Dewey. George Bush. Hubert Humphrey. Bob Dole. Gerald Ford. A veritable posse of winners. Watch for Bush or Kerry to portray themselves as Truman: it’s a sure-fire sign.
