The golden rule of politics is that you always need to run as though you’re five percentage points behind. And, if you’re five percentage points behind, you run as though you’re ten percentage points behind.
That’s the cautionary note that one shoves into the back of one’s mind whenever prognastications of this type come up. Forget for a moment the confusing USA Today (or was it AP) account from a couple weeks ago that said that Bush was ahead in the electoral college — confusing because the polls did not match the reality of the news story…
And go laugh at the accounts of the “Baby Bounce” — the supposedly meager and historically tepid post-conveion bounce in the polls that Kerry barely mustered.
The internals for Bush… are not good. Never mind that he’s below the magical 50% mark in public approval, the amount that history says an incumbant must hurdle over. Never mind that the latest economic news is sour, sour, sour. And never mind that Kerry beats Bush on all but one measure on individual issues — and is gaining parity on that odd one out “security”. The internal that destroys Bush — Bush’s approval rating amongst the undecideds is in the 30s.
Thus, the professional pollsters, ever since Zogby announced that this was Kerry’s election to lose, are coming to the fore with prognastications such as this one.
“He (Bush) really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman,” Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
He said that if Bush hadn’t ordered the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, he likely would be leading in 45 states and heading toward a landslide victory.
Indeed. Thinking ahead to a post-election post-mortem pin-pointing the precise moment when Bush lost the election, I’m convinced that history will record it as being the moment Bush … stood in front of an air-craft carrier, with a banner saying “Mission Accomplished” behind him. This is an administration that must stick by their story — in fact, even now Bush is basing his presidency on being “Resolute” “Staying the Course”… suddenly, the situation in Iraq becomes an open and shut case for the Bush Administration, and with such high expectations set an with that expectation as the rock-solid narrative truth…
Sabato called Kerry a cross between a funeral director and Lurch, the stiff butler on the old TV comedy “The Addams Family.”
“Only in a year like this could John Kerry be elected. He can’t connect with people. He’s way to the left of the American mainstream,” Sabato said.
God damned it, I want Howard Dean back!!
Sabato said Bush’s best chance to win is to focus on “hot-button social issues” and try to paint Kerry as too liberal on issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion and the death penalty.
Sabato said Bush’s father used such “wedge issues” to beat Dukakis in the 1988 presidential election. But that was a time of peace and prosperity, Sabato said. “Now you’ve got war and an economy that is rocky.”
That’s part of it, but unless some Gay Marriage Ban Initiatives that are in the ballot in various swing states spur out the right-wing base, this doesn’t appear to be working as of yet. Actually, Bush’s strategy should be pretty clear by now. This is the issue Kerry focused in on his convention — I think if he wanted to get a big but superficial “bounce” out of the convention, he might have focused on something a little less difficult.
The third component of the campaign against John Kerry, reminiscent of the campaign against John McCain, manifests itself with “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth”… which may just end up being the most obnoxious of boomerangs thrown from the Bush camp at the Kerry camp. I almost feel sorry for some of these individuals — who can begrudge them for festering a grudge through 30 years at Kerry’s post-war war protests and inability to reconcile that with fighting in Vietnam, thus resulting in a breakdown of viewing reality. If Kerry had come out of Vietnam as hawkish as them, I doubt these individuals would have much problem with Kerry.
What spurred this post? Go to the sidebar, and see my list of states up for grabs. And go to electoral-vote‘s list of states.
Here’s the conventional wisdom, and probably true, way that one oughta watch the Election 2004 Coverage, as we sweep across the nation. “Landsliders” means that if that candidate wins that state, it’s a landslide. “Breakers” means that it’s not necessarily a landslide, but it’s a clear indication that that candidate will win the election relatively handily. And “close winners” means that if things go according to expectation… they’ll win. I took this from the Blogging of the President Blog…:
Kerry Landsliders: Virginia, North Carolina.
Kerry Breaks Bush Back: Ohio
Kerry Close winners: New Hampshire, West Virginia, Tennessee
Bush Landsliders: New Jersey
Bush Breaks Kerry’s Back: Pennsylvannia
Bush Closer Winners: New Hampshire, Deleware
Central Time Zone:
Kerry Landsliders: Arkansas, Louisiana
Kerry Backbreakers: Missouri
Kerry Close Winners: Iowa
Bush Landsliders: Minnesota, Michigan
Bush Backbreakers: Wisconsin, Iowa
Bush Close Winners: Missouri
Mountain Time Zone
Kerry Backbreakers:Colorado
Kerry Close Winners: Nevada
Bush Close winners: New Mexico
Pacific Time Zone
Bush Breaks Kerry’s Back: Washington, Oregon
Pennsylvania and Michigan fall out of Bush’s grasp. Virginia, Colorado, and Arkansas fall into Kerry’s grasp. The fact that you can put Tennessee into the “close Kerry” category suggests a further trend: it wasn’t too long ago when the punditry were saying that the only Southern states the Democrats were respectable with were Arkansas and Louisiana (the last state only because they’re quite good at electing conservative Democrats) — I mean, Gore lost his own homestate, after all!
Now, all an arm-chair political prognasticator can do is try to dream up scenarios that could alter this basic political landscape at a moment’s notice… Use your imagination.