Francine Busby’s 44 percent rule

The most important election since the last election in the California 50th district, a few months ago, and the most important election until the next election in the California 50th district — this November, with at least two of the same candidates that took part in the last election a couple months ago and will be involved in the election this November.

I hate this procedure. It started when Democratic candidate Francine Busby failed to win 50 percent plus one in a special election to take over Duke Cunningham’s vacated seat, Duke Cunningham having been — um — summarily dismissed because… um… Duke Cunningham holds the title, quite literally, as the Most Corrupt Congressman in American History.

Her vote total was a perilous 44 percent, enough to suggest the very real possibility that her Republican opponents could easily swarm around and win the seat in June… and then, of course, win the seat again in November. Frankly, for the sake of the sanity of the good folks of the San Diego area, that election should have been it until November — nobody should have to endure three goddamned election contests pitting the same candidates in a seven month period. But it isnn’t it, and Busby’s 44 percent runs us all into the the Democratic Party’s 2006 electoral problem:

“The 2006 midterm elections are a political analyst’s nightmare. The national climate seems to portend big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate,” veteran elections tracker Charlie Cook says in his latest National Journal election preview.

Several structural problems confront the Democrats in the House elections. Just three- to four-dozen House races out of 435 at stake are truly competitive. And among the 18 Republican seats that are open, only half are in districts where “Democrats have a remote chance of winning,” Mr. Cook says. Making matters worse, the Democrats were able to recruit only second- or third-tier challengers in many key districts where the Republicans looked vulnerable.

I have this gut feeling that the Democratic Party really needs to win Randall “Duke” Cunningham’s old seat tomorrow in order to have a credible claim on winning the House in November. The last “Most Important Election” before April’s primary election that brought us Bilbray versus Busby was the Ohio contest that brought Paul Hackett perilously close to winning a heavily Republican Ohio district. But again, he did not win the race. The Democrats are, at the moment basically brushing up against the wall, and if Busby doesn’t break through that wall tomorrow… well, the “Culture of Corruption” was crafted in the backyard of Republican Blood Red districts.

On the other hand, and here’s where this thread dangles out: should Busby win, watch out! Or so goes my theory of Electoral politics circa 2006.

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