gone is Brian Schweitzer… waiting for Christine O’Donnell

The New Republic looks at the Republican’s path to Senate control with the 2014 elections, and rats it as… possible, very possible, but more likely not than yes.  Nate Silver takes it right over to “Toss Up” — apparently laying more thoughts on the next tier of possible pick ups than considred by the Nate Cohn.

The ponderings comes off of Brian Schweitzer, the governor of Montana, who would have been the odds on favor to an open Senate seat, but whose absence makes the seat likely to go the Republicans.  Brian Schweitzer is a figure, a liberal hero who probably in Washington would disappoint and disillusion his liberal fans…

… and whose decisions do beggar the question:  Why the Hell would you want to take a spot in the Senate, which seems to be a soul crushing experience?  Brian Schweitzer, whose political compromises (my guess is both to the right and to the left) might be way too much for him to handle in Washington and remain sane, will not make that leap.

Basically right now the Republicans are almost certainly going to win currently Democratically held West Virginia and South Dakota, and more than likely than not going to win Montana.  (The Democrats would now be hoping for a repeat of North Dakota’s race in 2012 — where the Democrat had as good a campaign as worldly possible, the Republican had as bad of one as can be, and it was won by less than a percentage point.)  After that… they’d need to win probably Louisiana and Arkansas — the national dynamics seem to suggest they’d need to win both… and then win either North Carolina or Alaska — well heeled incumbents, both, in states with purple under-currents.

We’re looking into an abyss of a Tom Cotton Senate seat in Arkansas.
Alaska is looking at a surreal tap dance by Sarah Palin, and a declared candidacy by Joe Miller as the nutty Tea Party figure up against a Republican Establishment figure the party hopes to get over Miller, and — well… it will be entertaining to beat up on either of those two candidates, yes.

Beyond that, the Republicans would have to not lose Kentucky and Georgia, the only two semi-plausible currently held Republican seats that the Democratic might win.  (Though, Nate Silver tosses Maine into the mix… because… you know.  Christine O’Donnell might poke her head in and screw things up for Susan Collins.)
An interesting nugget, in the off chance that the Georgia Senate race becomes competitive and a Libertarian candidate slices a few percentage points.
There’s another wrinkle here as well. Georgia is the only state in the nation which requires runoffs in the event no candidate receives 50 percent in the general election. Traditionally, these have been held in December. (We saw one for GA-Sen in 2008.) But under the judge’s new schedule, these runoffs would have to be held in January of 2015, because of course the normal November election date can’t be moved.
Entertaining, if nothing else.  (In 2008, I remember chuckling as Sarah Palin, John McCain, and Zell Miller rushed in to get Saxby Chambliss, while Jim Martin for the Democrats brought in… er… Jay Z?  And Obama keeping as far out of the way as possible from a looming electoral crushing.)

Beyond this jumble of races… we get to some interesting primary fights.  Tea Party Republican versus Establishment Republican pick.  Such as that is the case.  Or… probably more likely just amusing figures nipping on some Incumbents heels in and acting as nuisances in the case of Lindsey Graham and … is Christine O’donnell going to take on Susan Collins?
I note that dispute a curious comment from their former Senator, Wyoming is not considered a serious possibility for the Democrats to win.

Leave a Reply