Romney foreign policy smirks

It’s always awkward pulling a tragedy down to its political consequences…

… even though, to an awful degree, political combatants are thinking in terms of “How do I mitigates its negative political effects and use it to my advantage?”

Yes.  Romney is shameless.  Embassy violence in Egypt and Libya … “Because Obama is weak”… as opposed to, um, Islamic Extremists at War and there are Americans there?

Nate Silver’s forecast model (which has been accurate through the last few election cycles — it’s the horse race thing and Silver comes out of the Sports forecasting world)  has Obama moving further ahead, and now has Obama at 80.8 percent chance of winning the election.  (If the election were today, it stands at 91.6 percent.)  Essentially I don’t think hasn’t been a day this calendar year where “If the election were held today”, Obama wouldn’t win (if perhaps a bit ugly).  Basically Romney has a few news cycles where things can make a difference.  The Conventions were one possibility.  They’ve passed.  The Debates are the next opportunity.  The only other possibility is unforseen events.  And … there’s this he needs to get a hold of.  Even if the “Shoe were on the other foot” would have Romney, Rumsfeld and crew charging any Democrats with shamelessly seeking political gain and breaking up Americna Unity in the face of Terror.  But the bulk of neocons feel they can charge ahead with this “It’s because of Democratic Weakness” tag … and who knows?  Maybe it’ll get traction after initial public revulsion.

The curious item is the popular vote discreprency.   Obama’s chances of carrying the popular vote stands at 51.5 percent.  (Today would be at 51.2 percent.)  I think the point here is Obama has massive ground in states that went to McCain in 2008, and slight ground in states that he pulled in 2008.  (Excepting Indiana, which Obama narrowly won, and falls in the former category.)

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