Your Tea Party Senate candidates of Alaska, Utah, New Hampshire, Delaware, Kentucky, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida — a bulk of them are likely to win.

I don’t know what I am wanting with the Republican Alaska Primary, currently in recount mode.  Surely a “Joe Miller” upset of Lisa Murkowski gives an opening for that Democratic candidate — mayor of what counts for a large town in that state.  But the betting odds still tilt heavily toward the Republican.  Better for Murkowski to pull through, end that delusional dream which might be a reality in the last two electoral cycles but not this one, and let stand a tepidly reasonable Republican who likes to legislate a tad.   Alaska is only shade shy of Utah in terms of the no-lose proposition of a “Tea Party Movement” in taking out Republicans in the primary.

There are two more opportunities left for a Tea Party to smite the Republican picked candidate.  Understand, you have to be leery of the whole phenomenon.  It is not just that their incursion discombobulates the “Overton Window”, it is also that the positive upside for the Democrats is limited.  They remain likely to win in this election cycle, occasionally even more likely than the Moderate to Conservative they banished.  But in the case of New Hampshire and Delaware, it converts a likely Republican victory to a likely Democratic victory, and a sure Republican victory to a sure Democratic victory.  For Delaware, it is as the state Party Chair puts it:
“a perennial candidate who lacks the standing in Delaware to get elected to anything.”
For New Hampshire — well, it is interesting to note that the Tea Party Insurgent is endorsed by (according to wikipedia) — FORMER VICE PRESIDENT DAN QUAYLE!!!!

In a previous dias, I could look at the electoral map and see the distinct possibility of a sort of victory of vaguely reasonable Republicans who would anger the Republican base on occasion but whose electoral guide ahead rests on finding ways to assert that they “worked with” the other side and the Democratic President.  Massachusetts gave us Scott Brown.  Absent New Hampshire and Delaware, the only new Republican Senator to join this set of Mainers would be the one that would come out of Illinois.  The Center falls ashunder.

The generics portend a Republican Party thumping.  If this were 2008, Joe Miller in Alaska would lose.  Likewise these other screwballs.

Rand Paul in Kentucky?  He will probably win.  Wouldn’t have won in — certainly not 2006.  The one solace with Rand Paul is the Entertainment Value that the Land of Alex Jones is giving us — every time someone digs apart Paul for criticism, they report on a Thwarted Establishment Conspiracy.  Newspaper Endorsement time should be fun in this regard.

Sharron Angle in Nevada?  She might win, she might lose.  Polls show about two thirds of her voters wish they weren’t voting for her.  But the same might be said about Harry Reid.  Certainly Harry Reid has a lot to tee off in his Negative Campaign ads.  But I suggest he toss in a positive word about himself along the way.  Looking back at other Republican landslides, it may be that Angle falls where Oliver North and Mike Huffington did in 1994 — a Bridge too far.

Ken Buck in Colorado?  Who knows?  You would think that his calling birther conspiracists “Dumb Asses” would be an asset, but it appears he had to walk that comment back a tad.
It is hard to believe that a Wisconsin pol who spoke of global warming as “just sunspot activity” or “just something in the eons of time” could be electable.  But sometimes we falter against Reality.  Study this poll result.  There is no basis in Reality.  It is the basis for the impending series of pointless investigations to hamper anything Obama might do — destructive politics, but your basis of thought comes from the President being Illegitimate just Because he is there, you have nothing else to work with.

Whatever else you can say about Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, he is more “Club for Growth” than “Tea Party”.  But then again, so is the “Tea Party” — except for a pancrea of rightwing populist symbols.
Florida is a weird cluster-f.  Charlie Crist is playing a lot of footsy in party identification, hoping he can amass that nebulous sphere of non-partisan partisans.  Kendrick Meek is running to push away any of Crist’s Democratic supporters.  The problem is that question of how Crist would keep any of his Republican supporters if his Democratic support collapses — his “Center Holding” rests on the center believing the other part of the center will hold with him.  So it is Marc Rubio.

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