Equilibrium metes out against Inanity

This is an overly optimistic partisan assessment of Democratic fortunes for 2010.  The Senate map isn’t all that friendly for the Democrats — it is about even, I gather.  Of course, that doesn’t stop things from happening: 2006’s map was sort of Republican friendly, which only meant that disaster could have been worse for the Republicans.  2002 was friendly for the Democrats, which only blunted the Republican gains that night.  How the Democrats are going to pick up three seats (that’d mean Missouri, New Hampshire, and one of several not insane but I wouldn’t really bet on it pick ups — the Republicans nominate Rand Paul and so the Democrats pick up Kentucky?) while losing some House seats, I don’t know.

Of course, this partisan boosterism is nothing compared to the anonymous Movement Conservative wishful thinking in the comments section.  These are the people who take the 60,000 teaparty march on Washington and think those were 2 million.  Of course, such a matter is being encouraged by Republicans in Congress — see Johnny Isakson’s comments yesterday.  There is one stunning thing about Obama’s fortunes: he is never going to encounter a Republican Congress, meaning both Senate and House.  If the Democrats lose control of the Senate in 2012, it would come with a Republican President.  The earliest the Republicans might win the Senate is 2014.  The upshot there is that the threat of a Republican Congress pursuing Impeachment over, say, fevered dreams about Acorn is null and void.

Another thing to consider: after all the noise, the Health Care bill that is likely to be passed is about what anyone would expect.  The equilibrium has set in: it was swerving rightward, now it’s facing a sort of left pressure as the threat of a fiasco in passing Individual Mandates is setting in.  It seems as though the nature of the media and the void of the month wins the month of August for the Republicans (see 1988, 2004, and 2008).  Who knows?  The clearest explanation of 2008 politics was something I saw at the end of 2007 that had the Democratic nominee winning by 7 or 8 points and everything between then and November 2008 essentially a Kabuki Dance.  So, Joseph Biden can be one weird dude.

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