Some Election Predictions and things I’m watching
All right.
The Democratic candidate wins the seat in Virginia, Alaska, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Minnesota, and at the very least passes Georgia into a run-off, if not wins out-right.
The Republican incumbent retains his seat in Mississippi — I refer to the competitive special election here and not the one matching up a state Senator who endorsed Lyndon Larouche for the 2004 primary, though the Republican is going to win that one too.
Kentucky? ARRRGH!!! Can I get a pass on that one? No? Fine. Bruce Lunsford defeats Mitch McConnell. Whoop De Doo. Arbitrary pick, that. I think McConnell is favored by any measure, so we can call that my “Upset Special,” even as half of all prognosticators picking at that race are picking against him. Do I believe this pick? Honestly, if forced to put money on this one, I’d say no — unlike my previous round of selections which I firmly believe. And that’s a hedge — I pick someone than state that I don’t really believe it.
Stepping outside partisanship, that victory would do the deed of firming up a trend of defeating party Senate heads: Tom Daschle in 2004, McConnell in 2008, and quite possible a crack at Harry Reid in 2010. That’s a good trend. If it repeats itself often enough, sometime in the distant future the choice of who to pick as party leaders will narrow itself to the Republicans picking someone from Utah and the Democrats picking someone from Massachusetts.
Partisan-wise, I think the major points of glee would come from watching the Republican incumbent losting Kentucky, Georgia, with a late feeler of ill will sent to North Carolina. Kentucky avenges Daschle, decapitates the Republican Senate caucus, and punishes a policy of severe obstructionism. Somewhat surrealistically, Hillary Clinton has turned into a great boon in this race — showing how political cultural attitudes are never really fully cemented, and in a way circuitously takes us back to Bill Clinton winning the state in his elections. It is weird, isn’t it?
Georgia avenges Saxby Chambliss’s ad campaign of 2002 — and blah blah blah, Max Cleland — Osama Bin Laden — triple amputee — Terrorist Mastermind. This is added to 2008 comments where Chambliss careened from a realpolitick observation of how the demographics of early voters were putting him behind the eight-ball to a statement of how the “sight of their people voting will bring out our people” — as simple as black and white.
As Elizabeth Dole fell behind her race in North Carolina, she ran that ad saying her opponent attended a “secret meeting” with the “Godless Americans PAC”. Unintentionally hilarious, at least over here, “Godless money”, but things became really devious with the statement “hiding behind closed doors” followed by an image of Kay Hagan and a voice shouting out “There is no God.” What a cluster of innuendo. Actually, I have to wonder why Elizabeth Dole was in trouble in the first place. She ought not be. I think electorates would forgive their politicians for being either a little further to their left or to their right if they made an effort to toss out a bundle of state-wide tours to “connect with the people” — I gather the secret to the continued political career of, say — Tom Harkin. Dole has no connection with her state.
In the House, everyone wants to knock out Michelle Bachman. Here, you’re asking a bunch of Republicans to very specifically reject her special type of neo-McCartyhyist Republicanism and for at least two years accept representation from a Democrat. We will see if this is too tall an order. There are several other mini-Bachmans out there, but it’s fair to say that Michelle Bachman represents the purest most undiluted personification of Bachmanism.
Also, everyone loves Darcy Burner because when her house was burned down, she was wearing a t-shirt that read “< / war >” …Â
Regionally, Idaho’s second district punts Bill Sali again, and this appears to be parody. And what does it mean to someone anywhere else in the nation beyond this strip of Idaho and in the grand scheme of things that somewhere in the minority party of a group of 435 someone like Bill Sali is sitting around? Probably very little.
Also, there’s a special place in my heart, to see Jack Murtha defeated. Pentagon budget bloater, CREW-designated Corrupt — basically caught red-handed two decades ago on that score. The good news is that any political implications for Murtha’s defeat would be drowned out by the 20 plus Democratic House pick-up, leaving little space for this as a repudiation of winding our way out of Iraq.
Dominating space in terms of ballot measures is California’s Proposition #8, to eliminate gay marriage. This is backed in full force by the Church of Latter Day Saints, or the Mormon Church if you will, except for 49er Quarterback Great Steve Young, who I think is going to form a splinter faith when the church gets around to ex-communicating him — ironic for someone descended from Brigham Young.
Presidential race? I predict Barack Obama is going to win North Dakota. Do I really believe that? I don’t know, but I’ll throw out that prediction because I feel a little nutty here, and want to make some presidential prediction.  And wave this all goodbye.  Who will come in third: Nader, Barr, Baldwin, or McKinney? Nader, I guess, because he splits the left wing third-party vote with McKinney less-so than Barr and Baldwin — the beloved “Libertarian” Ron Paul endorsed Baldwin but Barr is in fact the Libertarian Party candidate. So Nader comes in third, I suppose returning to his 2000 glory, I guess.