{"id":8254,"date":"2011-05-26T13:37:52","date_gmt":"2011-05-26T20:37:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/?p=8254"},"modified":"2011-05-26T13:40:10","modified_gmt":"2011-05-26T20:40:10","slug":"the-republican-party-primary-contest-2012-three-cornered-fight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/2011\/05\/26\/the-republican-party-primary-contest-2012-three-cornered-fight\/","title":{"rendered":"The Republican Party Primary Contest, 2012: three cornered fight"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At the 2007 Conservative Political Action Committee Conference, John McCain and Mitt Romney were both pilloried as fakers, Mitt Romney memorably followed around by people wearing dolphin costumes to denote &#8220;Flipper&#8221;.\u00c2\u00a0 One year later, after the New Hampshire primary put John McCain on a glide to the Republican nomination, Romney was moving around the conservative talk radio circuit in a last dash for the nomination, and was greeted as a hero at the CPAC conference whence he bowed out with a speech that craftily placed him to McCain&#8217;s right in looking ahead to 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Was there any reality to these political placements?\u00c2\u00a0 Politics is like that, and as often as not the media and conventional wisdom narrative of how the electorate jibes comes across as arbitrary or false.<br \/>\nThe 2012 Republican scramble, after a few high profile adieus, seemed to settle into something digestible.\u00c2\u00a0 Mitt Romney would try to steer that front runner&#8217;s path with Tim Pawlenty positioning himself to his right.\u00c2\u00a0 In effect, Romney would have assumed McCain&#8217;s circa 2008 spot with Pawlenty assuming Romney&#8217;s circa 2008 spot.\u00c2\u00a0 A wildcard is toosed in the mix &#8212; that candidate who had seemed to quietly being departing the race but now seems to be moving in for a run with <a href=\"http:\/\/caucuses.desmoinesregister.com\/2011\/05\/25\/iowa-theater-owners-doubt-palin-movie-will-be-a-blockbuster-here\/\">a defiant movie in Iowa designed to tout her gubernatorial record<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 I\u00c2\u00a0 gather it is key to reinvent herself from Tina Fey shadow.\u00c2\u00a0 I do find it difficult to see how she can escape quitting &#8212; I guess her political clout is built around grievances,<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2011\/05\/the-sarah-palin-disaster-movie\/239448\/\"> but her movie narrative on why she had to quit<\/a> doesn&#8217;t hold up as &#8212; like, what?\u00c2\u00a0 Obama and Clinton <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2011\/05\/the-sarah-palin-disaster-movie\/239448\/#comment-212230688\">haven&#8217;t been tarred with inanities<\/a> while still moving forward on the elected job?<\/p>\n<p>She might be 2012&#8217;s Mike Huckabee?\u00c2\u00a0 If it were not for Mike Huckabee, and his victory in the Iowa caucuses slicing up Romney&#8217;s (or anti-McCain) electorate, Mitt Romney would have been the Republican nominee.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 Or she might hog the media oxygen and prove palatable to the Republican primary voter after all.<\/p>\n<p>The media insist on priming John Huntman as a contender &#8212; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2011\/05\/the-gops-cool-uncle\/239489\/\">nimble enough to track conservatives who are exhausted by a sense of outrage<\/a>?\u00c2\u00a0 It is hard for me to imagine this coming to pass &#8212; is he like this year&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=nOSoZDwNblc\">Henry Cabot Lodge<\/a> of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Pzzsr5SMImE\">1964<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>The others, I suppose eat into the main contender&#8217;s base, but have their followers all alone.\u00c2\u00a0 Newt Gingrich&#8217;s defenders think Gingrich might win with the Youth Vote &#8212; d<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amconmag.com\/blog\/2011\/05\/20\/a-candidate-without-a-constituency\/\">ue to them not remembering his record and battles of the 1990s<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 This is not likely to get him anywhere &#8212; or&#8230; he could win the vote of <a href=\"http:\/\/gawker.com\/5803213\/newt-gingrichs-spokesman-releases-greatest-statement-ever\">the megalomaniacal<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p><em>The literati sent out their minions to do their bidding. Washington  cannot tolerate threats from outsiders who might disrupt their  comfortable world. The firefight started when the cowardly sensed  weakness. They fired timidly at first, then the sheep not wanting to be  dropped from the establishment&#8217;s cocktail party invite list unloaded  their entire clip, firing without taking aim their distortions and  falsehoods. Now they are left exposed by their bylines and handles. But  surely they had killed him off. This is the way it always worked. A  lesser person could not have survived the first few minutes of the  onslaught. But out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia  emerged Gingrich, once again ready to lead those who won&#8217;t be intimated  by the political elite and are ready to take on the challenges America  faces.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bachmann and Caine won&#8217;t win dipsticks.\u00c2\u00a0 (Is it possible Bachmann and Rick Santorum will eat away at Palin&#8217;s totals in Iowa?) \u00c2\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2011\/05\/06\/two-heads-are-better-than-one\">The writers at Reason are probably right <\/a>with their belief that seeing that neither Ron Paul or Gary Johnson are going to win the nomination, for their purposes it is just as well to have them both on the road amplifying their Libertarian message in appealing to the same slice of the electorate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the 2007 Conservative Political Action Committee Conference, John McCain and Mitt Romney were both pilloried as fakers, Mitt Romney memorably followed around by people wearing dolphin costumes to denote &#8220;Flipper&#8221;.\u00c2\u00a0 One year later, after the New Hampshire primary put John McCain on a glide to the Republican nomination, Romney was moving around the conservative [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8254"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8256,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8254\/revisions\/8256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}