{"id":7014,"date":"2010-10-21T13:36:57","date_gmt":"2010-10-21T20:36:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/?p=7014"},"modified":"2010-10-21T13:41:30","modified_gmt":"2010-10-21T20:41:30","slug":"everyone-gets-to-pick-what-polls-they-believe-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/2010\/10\/21\/everyone-gets-to-pick-what-polls-they-believe-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Everyone gets to pick what polls they believe in"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have a bit of contradictions with regards to the upcoming “Democratic Party Bloodbath” in the Grand Horse Race of American politics.\u00c2\u00a0 The House?\u00c2\u00a0 Speaker Boehner.\u00c2\u00a0 As per Nate Silver<\/a>:<\/p>\n

For the time being, we are still in a universe where Democrats could probably hold the House by having the coin come up heads in a sufficient number of tossup races.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em>We may not be far from the point, however, where their chances would boil down, in essence, to there being systemic errors in the polls, which could potentially affect a large number of races \u00e2\u20ac\u201d or there being some sort of last-minute change in the macro environment.<\/em><\/p>\n

But it is a little hard to compute a House Scenario with things going on with the movements in the easier to digest and follow Senate.\u00c2\u00a0 I recognize that, say, a five point lead at this point in the game is more significant than a ten point lead two months ago — and “Momentum” leads straight to a stall.\u00c2\u00a0 But we’re in a strange state here.<\/p>\n

Well la de freaking da.\u00c2\u00a0 The eye popping sentence to end all eye popping sentences in this game of “Horse Race”s.\u00c2\u00a0 ALASKA<\/strong>:\u00c2\u00a0 [Joe] <\/a>Miller’s getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed.
\n<\/em>Neat, huh?\u00c2\u00a0 Regretably we’re in a world where Joe Miller’s downfall benefits Lisa Murkowski as much as Scott McAdams.
\nA historical memo<\/a>:\u00c2\u00a0 Four years later, Knowles was re-elected under remarkably similar circumstances, despite dreadful approval numbers and an electorate that was just as anti-Democrat as ever. His Republican opponent self destructed in a fashion that Mr. Miller hasn’t yet touched, culminating with with the Republican Party taking the remarkable step of formally withdrawing their nomination of him after ballots were printed. I think he finished 3rd behind Governor Knowles and some Republican State Senator who – wait for it – ran a write in campaign at the last minute.
\n<\/em>I seem to recall Knowles campaign strategy turning into “Dump all the add buys, cancel all the public appearances, close the shades, turn off the lights, and don’t let the hear you laughing.” It worked.<\/em><\/p>\n

The wild card nature of this race shows through with the type of question pollsters are asking<\/a>:
\nIf the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?
\n<\/em>We’ll see…<\/p>\n

Wisconsin<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Pay little attention and don’t get in trapped in following these things, but\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0these polls are going to kill me.<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 I am easy to dismiss an odd little poll like this one as an outlier or easily disregarded internal poll.\u00c2\u00a0 But that’s how I treated the poll in Pennsylvania that showed Sestack ahead, and…<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania<\/strong><\/a>:\u00c2\u00a0 But publications like<\/em> The Hotline<\/em><\/a> have indicated, and some contacts of mine have related, that not only do Democratic internal polls show the race tightening, but Republican ones do as well.<\/em><\/p>\n

Maybe Feingold remains politically, or maybe not.\u00c2\u00a0 Apparently Sestack isn’t.\u00c2\u00a0 Odd — nothing new has happened on a “swing 7 percentage” scale, has it?\u00c2\u00a0 The electorate must have a positive reaction to\u00c2\u00a0prominent displays of dog poop<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I have a working theory with candidates Feingold and Sestack.\u00c2\u00a0 The reason a relatively small margin is generally insurmontable a month may in large part just be that this point, financial resources are apt to dry up as the candidates fade into electoral oblivion.\u00c2\u00a0 Feingold and Sestack have an advantage on this socre where the Democratic candidates in Ohio and New Hampshire don’t — a national constituency of “netroots”, so they remain solvent to fight through to election day, and run dog poop themed commercials.
\nUnfortunately, Feingold may not own a dog.<\/p>\n

Okay.\u00c2\u00a0 Try this one<\/a>:<\/p>\n

KENTUCKY <\/strong>In the latest Rasmussen poll Rand Paul is ahead of Jack Conway by 5 points. But this is down from last month where Paul was ahead 11 points. A poll conducted by Bennett, Petts and Normington for the DSCC has Conway up by 2. Real Clear Politics scores the race for Paul, but only by 3. What is happening?
\n<\/em>The obvious culprit is “Aqua Buddha”.\u00c2\u00a0 Or maybe it’s… Aqua Buddha floating about in a context of everything else.
\nWhat’s happening is that Rand Paul, in his response ad to Jack Conway, forsook the Aqua Buddha — and thus the Aqua Buddha has forsaken Rand Paul.
\nInteresting thought, as\u00c2\u00a0I read it, this\u00c2\u00a0is a back-handed way of defending Jack Conway on Ezra Klein’s part<\/a>:
\nConway’s <\/em>attack<\/em> on Rand Paul, conversely, is coming under Conway’s name, so he also owns the backlash. That’s not a great strategy: If you’ve got a line of attack that decent people are likely to condemn, it’s wise to make sure they’re condemning someone who isn’t you. The Conway campaign would be better off if people were discussing whether Christians United Against Rand Paul had gone too far, rather than whether Jack Conway had gone too far.<\/em><\/p>\n

The electorate\u00c2\u00a0rewards politicians when they defer their attacks to some other entity (even obnoxiously thinly disguised in terms of connections) and punish them for the same damned attack when they sign the attack.\u00c2\u00a0 They’ll probably end up edging Paul a victory, but maybe the Kentucky electorate\u00c2\u00a0could do as a favor by changing those terms.<\/p>\n

NEVADA.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/strong>For instance, by any rights this election campaign ad gambit should backfire<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Democratic Latino voters could easily be forgiven for mistaking the <\/em>new television ad<\/em> making its way around Nevada as a message from like-minded liberals frustrated with the party’s inaction. “President Obama and the Democratic leadership made a commitment that immigration reform would be passed within a year. But two years have gone by and nothing, not even a vote in Congress.” That’s exactly what I’ve been saying! “With a Democratic president and supermajorities in both chambers of Congress, they have no excuses.” None! None at all! Okay, maybe some, but whatever, let’s move on. “Aren’t you tired of politicians playing games with your future?” Tired? I can barely keep my eyes open. “Do you really think it will be different this time?” Does <\/em>Sharron Angle<\/em> think at all? Okay, so what do we do about this? “Don’t vote this November, this is the only way to send them a clear message. Don’t. Vote.” Yeah, that’ll show … Wait, huh?<\/em><\/p>\n

The ad’s unexpected suggestion comes courtesy of Robert de Posada, founder of Latinos for Reform, who told <\/em>TPM<\/em> he’s become equally frustrated with both parties. It sure seems like one more than the other, though. De Posada once served as Dick Armey’s co-director of Americans for Border and Economic Security and supports no amnesty, heightened border security, and employee verification. The website for Latinos for Reform lists its address as a P.O. box manned by Susan Arceneaux, a player in the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, but De Posada says that’s a mistake.<\/em><\/p>\n

Swift Vote Veterans for Truth?\u00c2\u00a0 Why does it seem like it’s aways just a rotation of the same five rich jerks over and over again?
\nAn example of a classic “Forced Equivalency<\/a>“:
\nIndeed, Latinos have been accusing the state’s tea-party-backed Republican Senate candidate, Sharron Angle, of race baiting by running ads with ominous-looking Hispanic men crossing the U.S. border. Angle’s campaign, meanwhile, has begun to charge her opponent, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, with “playing the race card” as he seeks to capitalize on Angle’s gaffes in front of local Latino students and a GOP ad urging Hispanics to not vote.
\n<\/em>IT BURNS!!! IT BURNS!!!!<\/p>\n

The polling is even, though I gather a slight tilt for Angle.\u00c2\u00a0 Reid and the Democrats, in the same manner that Feingold and\u00c2\u00a0various others, retort that they’ve got a “Ground Game” that’d make up for any slight edge to their opponent.\u00c2\u00a0 We will see.\u00c2\u00a0 The “Tea Party Express” and the former Alaskan governor started their bus tour here, and I gather will end it — in that classic race where the average voter will stand at the polling lever, hold their nose and look away as they sigh in pulling their level deciding on a candidate, and not be too concerned if the lever slipped.<\/p>\n

Illinois<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 A search of google news getting at\u00c2\u00a0“Alexi Giannoulias V. Mark Kirk” Giannouliasthat we’re in la la land in terms “Watching the Polls”, with the typical 3 points either way, and the accusations from partisan sources that the poll showing the other guy ahead is rigged or pushed, touting their preferred poll.\u00c2\u00a0
\nLike with Nevada, and in a way with Kentucky, the race will come down to who the electorate hates the least<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0— with a Green Party candidate poised to spoil more than the Libertarian candidate.<\/p>\n

West Virginia.<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 This appears to be a race I would go ahead and say “Nut to this” and roll over to the “Mountain Party<\/a>” candidate.\u00c2\u00a0 (This is contrast to Jack Conway in the\u00c2\u00a0same land of\u00c2\u00a0Coal, who just\u00c2\u00a0meets a minimum standard.)\u00c2\u00a0 The state appears a two party duopoly under the behest of King Coal, with a Democratic governor that the state Republican Party has long been comfortable with in the way the Democrat is comfortable with tacit support of Republicans.\u00c2\u00a0 In a course like this, it’s only natural that your Republican Party candidate is going to be a mighty screwball.\u00c2\u00a0 But I’ll say it’s good that the spell of John Raese-mania has faded.
\nYou know… Rush Limbaugh was instrumental in electing the Democratic Senate candidate in Missouri in 2006, he seems poised to help the 2010 West Virginia candidate<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 But these things have already built up — the thing I’m having a hard time figuring out with this thing is… What’s with John Raese’s accent?\u00c2\u00a0 Is that, like, a New England brogue?<\/p>\n

However the Election Day turns out, we go right into <\/a>…<\/p>\n

Koch Industries, the longtime underwriter of libertarian causes from the Cato Institute in Washington to the ballot initiative that would suspend California\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s landmark law capping greenhouse gases, is planning a confidential meeting at the Rancho Las Palmas Resort and Spa to, as an invitation says, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153develop strategies to counter the most severe threats facing our free society and outline a vision of how we can foster a renewal of American free enterprise and prosperity.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d […]<\/em><\/p>\n

With a personalized letter signed by Charles Koch, the invitation to the four-day Rancho Mirage meeting opens with a grand call to action: \u00e2\u20ac\u0153If not us, who? If not now, when?\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/p>\n

The Koch network meets twice a year to plan and expand its efforts \u00e2\u20ac\u201d as the letter says, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153to review strategies for combating the multitude of public policies that threaten to destroy America as we know it.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d […]<\/em><\/p>\n

The Kochs also seek to cultivate Americans\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 growing concern about the growth of government: at the most recent meeting, in Aspen, Colo., in June, some of the wealthiest people in America listened to a presentation on \u00e2\u20ac\u0153a vision of how we can retain the moral high ground and make the new case for liberty and smaller government that appeals to all Americans, rich and poor.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d […]<\/em><\/p>\n

The participants in Aspen dined under the stars at the top of the gondola run on Aspen Mountain, and listened to Glenn Beck of Fox News in a session titled, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Is America on the Road to Serfdom?\u00e2\u20ac\u009d (The title refers to a classic of Austrian economic thought that informs libertarian ideology, popularized by Mr. Beck on his show.)The participants included some of the nation\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s wealthiest families and biggest names in finance: private equity and hedge fund executives like John Childs, Cliff Asness, Steve Schwarzman and Ken Griffin; Phil Anschutz, the entertainment and media mogul ranked by Forbes as the 34th-richest person in the country; Rich DeVos, the co-founder of Amway; Steve Bechtel of the giant construction firm; and Kenneth Langone of Home Depot.<\/em><\/p>\n

The same dozen rich guys, ready to unveil new\u00c2\u00a0rotating fly by night Front Groups.
\n… and an assist from… GLEN BECK???<\/p>\n

Which makes some sense.<\/a><\/p>\n

Recently, Beck went hat in hand to his radio audience, <\/em>strongly<\/em> <\/em>encouraging<\/em> his listeners to <\/em>open their wallets<\/em> and make October 14 “the largest day of fundraising for the Chamber of Commerce ever.” Beck pledged to personally donate $10,000.<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0
\nYou know… I don’t understand why an “average” individual would donate money to the Chamber of Commerce.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s the same rule with a self financed rich political candidate (Meg Whitman in California as an example) — even if you agree with them… Why?
\nFor that matter, there is no\u00c2\u00a0Republican National Committee anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s all American Crossroads, baby!<\/p>\n

The future is wide open<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have a bit of contradictions with regards to the upcoming “Democratic Party Bloodbath” in the Grand Horse Race of American politics.\u00c2\u00a0 The House?\u00c2\u00a0 Speaker Boehner.\u00c2\u00a0 As per Nate Silver: For the time being, we are still in a universe where Democrats could probably hold the House by having the coin come up heads in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7014"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7014\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7018,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7014\/revisions\/7018"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}