{"id":6305,"date":"2010-06-12T11:56:09","date_gmt":"2010-06-12T18:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/?p=6305"},"modified":"2010-06-12T13:02:58","modified_gmt":"2010-06-12T20:02:58","slug":"alvin-greene-fitting-an-electoral-vaccuum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/2010\/06\/12\/alvin-greene-fitting-an-electoral-vaccuum\/","title":{"rendered":"Alvin Greene fitting an electoral Vaccuum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The search for the explanation for why Alvin Greene won is &#8230; interesting, but probably rather trivial.\u00c2\u00a0 Barring the &#8220;Diebold Machine&#8221; line of thought, I will just say that if his candidacy was a Republican Dirty trick, it is a dirty trick that recognizes the randomness and information void in South Carolina, and a type of Dirty Trick tossed out to work at crap-shot intervals,\u00c2\u00a0usually unexploded.<\/p>\n<p>Keep in mind that nominations like his&#8230; happen reasonably <a href=\"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/2008\/06\/07\/in-defense-of-shirley\/\">regularly<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Too many elections with curious variables for them not to occur.<\/p>\n<p>What we&#8217;re looking for becomes a quest for Impulse Biases against a broad background of an Information Vacuum.\u00c2\u00a0 It is here that variables such as ballot placement and prejudice toward\u00c2\u00a0monosyllabic names &#8212; or perhaps unconcious\u00c2\u00a0admiration for Alvin and the Chipmunks or Al Green &#8212; comes across as the deciding factor.\u00c2\u00a0 Coming off a blogoland discussion advocating that Judgeships should not be elected officials due to their positions of responsibility not really being conducive to public &#8216;s ability to qualify and rate them &#8212; leading the job into an information vaccuum and into a crap-shot liable to be filled by narrow interests OR short spurts of politicization on the part of the judge &#8212; I&#8217;d think that Nate Silver and 538 could just move some of those arguments into\u00c2\u00a0his analysis &#8212; found <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\/2010\/06\/something-fishy-in-south-carolina.html\">here<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\/2010\/06\/sc-democratic-primary-getting-weirder.html\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It appears that race was not a factor, but I would not have been surprised if it had been.\u00c2\u00a0 Keep in mind this would only be the case against a lack of meaning in the broader campaign, and a lack of campaign focus.\u00c2\u00a0 We had a good case study of a white politician defeating a black politician in a heavily black electorate because qualifications and positions had been clearly spelled out: Artur Davis lost the Alabama Democratic Gubernatorial Nomination because of his record and his opponent&#8217;s record.\u00c2\u00a0 I do not know who appeared first on the ballot, and I can state clearly that that was not a meaningful factor.<\/p>\n<p>Here is my thought experiment.\u00c2\u00a0 Consider an elected position of, say: Abjunct Facilitator.\u00c2\u00a0 What does this job entail?\u00c2\u00a0 I haven&#8217;t a clue, which is why I&#8217;m going to ask two distinct electorates to vote on the it.\u00c2\u00a0 I&#8217;ll give you two candidates: Samantha Blout and Edward Blanche.\u00c2\u00a0 No other data is supplied.\u00c2\u00a0 One is before a group of women, the other a group of men.\u00c2\u00a0 Who wins?<br \/>\nHow about we give a Provo electorate and a Berkely electorate a choice between &#8220;Joe Friday&#8221; and &#8220;Sunday Butterfly&#8221;?\u00c2\u00a0 Fuzz it and make it less obvious &#8212; this name, I&#8217;m guessing, suggests nothing about background yet I&#8217;m guessing has an effect: &#8220;Nick Spacey&#8221; versus &#8220;Fred Aldrin&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The real interesting race might be between a &#8220;Sam Fry&#8221; and a &#8220;Sam Frye&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>As for Alvin Greene, the disturbing thing is <a href=\"http:\/\/voices.washingtonpost.com\/ezra-klein\/2010\/06\/did_alvin_green_win_because_hi.html#comments\">reading some comments <\/a>on various posts that abound about this story.\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>rickroberts, I live here. I am telling you, none of the local newspapers covered this race. There were no &#8220;voter guides&#8221; for this race. One alternative weekly, &#8220;The Free Times,&#8221; actually did run a pretty decent piece on Greene in May, asking &#8220;Who is this guy?&#8221; I think the Greenville News also had a paragraph about him.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s this sort of incredulity on this concept of &#8220;voter&#8217;s guide&#8221;.\u00c2\u00a0 I would think this would be a necessary de rigeur component of a state&#8217;s election system &#8212; a voter&#8217;s pamphlet &#8212; paid in part by candidate&#8217;s filing fees, I would think.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s disturbing to me if it is not the case.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding his media interviews&#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=VYtnrvn9xd4\">here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ntlp4fTell4\">here<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=zUFN7ZkjgkA\">here<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0&#8212; I would like the man much better if his answer to the question of how he won and what his campaign consisted of was something of a more blunt &#8212; &#8220;I put my name on the ballot and the people voted for me.\u00c2\u00a0 Deal with it.&#8221;\u00c2\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theroot.com\/views\/alvin-greene-real-joe-plumber?page=0,2&amp;obref=obinsite\">Read his comments here on his supposed campaign<\/a> &#8212; and I just\u00c2\u00a0find myself now\u00c2\u00a0waiting for\u00c2\u00a0someone somewhere in South Carolina to come forward and discuss any political interaction they had with Alvin Greene &#8220;Pressing the Flesh&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>And this wikipedia comment:<br \/>\n<em>If elected he would be the first African-American in the Southern United States to win a seat in U.S. Senate since Reconstruction<sup id=\"cite_ref-0\"><span>[<\/span>1<span>]<\/span><\/sup> when Republican senators Hiram Rhodes Revels and Blanche Bruce represented Mississippi in the 1870s. He would also be the first popularly elected African-American Senator from the South.<br \/>\n<\/em>strikes me as the Alvin Greene campaign, or some sympatic figures, putting the best light on his nomination.\u00c2\u00a0 It is a bit weasley &#8212; he&#8217;s not the first black candidate, and frankly has fewer qualifications than either the damned blue doggish Harold Ford of Tennessee or&#8230; the state Senator from Mississippi who ran in Mississippi in 2006 and 2008 &#8212; Erik Fleming,\u00c2\u00a0both of whom\u00c2\u00a0once fit the wikipedia article focus that &#8220;\u00c2\u00a0would be the first African-American in the Southern United States to win a seat in U.S. Senate since Reconstruction&#8221;.\u00c2\u00a0 (If you want to know why I know of Erik Fleming, it&#8217;ll pop out at you if you read through his wikipedia article.)<\/p>\n<p>.. and for the Progressive Base who came out in support of Bill Halter to sock it to the anti-union Blanche Lincoln &#8212; skip to 4:00 on the last video and you will see that this man, Alvin Greene, stating that &#8220;We don&#8217;t have Unions here in South Carolina and I want to keep it that way&#8230; I&#8217;m for keeping South Carolina free&#8230; Union Free &#8212; I&#8217;m a moderate Democrat, that&#8217;s&#8230; one of the&#8230; Moderate Democrat positions.&#8221;\u00c2\u00a0 It is a bizarrely scripted explanation for his position, I am thinking, and suggests we can&#8217;t even give him points for not being a calculating politician.\u00c2\u00a0 But I guess you can hedge that against his desire to Unify the Koreas into one Democratic government&#8230; if you think he&#8217;s capable of bringing that about.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>(* We&#8217;ve found ONE SINGLE PIECE OF EVIDENCE of a Campaign&#8230; <a href=\"http:\/\/letters.salon.com\/politics\/war_room\/2010\/06\/11\/alvin_greene_stats\/permalink\/5dba45a7db7e773e41cb486e90fc55b6.html\">here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The search for the explanation for why Alvin Greene won is &#8230; interesting, but probably rather trivial.\u00c2\u00a0 Barring the &#8220;Diebold Machine&#8221; line of thought, I will just say that if his candidacy was a Republican Dirty trick, it is a dirty trick that recognizes the randomness and information void in South Carolina, and a type [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6305"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6305\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6308,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6305\/revisions\/6308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}