Tuesday is Election Day 2009, and we’ll find out any number of things.\u00c2\u00a0 How much does Washington State like its gays and how much does Maine love its gays?\u00c2\u00a0 Actually polls show Domestic Partnership should pass through Washington fairly easily, with marraige in Maine a qubble that we shall see.<\/p>\n
Other questions: what will be the dollar per vote amount for Michael Bloomberg’s third term mayorship in the city of New York?\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, this one is pretty easy to figure out right now — the two variables of the hundred million spent and the rought vote count are roughly set in stone.\u00c2\u00a0 As is the hypocrisy of arguing against the third term claim attempt as the “Necessary Man” by his predecessor, Rudy, against his third term claim as the “Necessary Man”.<\/p>\n
What will the Virginia Republican Gubernatorial candidate’s victory signify, considering this will be the ninth straight time the opposition party took this seat following the presidential election?\u00c2\u00a0 Was Creigh Deed unlucky in having been tossed a false golden nugget in the form of the McDonnell college writings — another metaphor — the silver bullet that wasn’t diverting him from necessary campaigning steps?\u00c2\u00a0 Actually, Deeds made the honest mistake of not wanting to rely on the Obama electoral coalition, viewing it as full of too many unreliable voters, and trying with no success to cobble together something different.\u00c2\u00a0 The Democrat in Virginia might be unwittingly setting a pattern for some vulnerable Democrats in 2010 — assuming the voting pool will be terminally altered away from the Obama victory they rode the coat-tails on, and then making that a self-fulfilling prophecy by alienating Obama’s marginal voters.<\/p>\n
Can a one time promising Republican candidate in New Jersey finally finally finally win a state election?\u00c2\u00a0 It’ll happen eventually.\u00c2\u00a0 It just didn’t happen in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, or 2007.\u00c2\u00a0 Actually the New Jersey Governor Corzine took the electoral strategy his Virginia brethern rejected: hide behind Obama, and call his opponent fat.\u00c2\u00a0 Well, that last one wouldn’t have worked for Virginia’s Deeds — the best Deeds had was to call his opponent a crazy fundamentalist.\u00c2\u00a0 That misfired.\u00c2\u00a0 It may be that Virginia is full of crazy fundamentalists in a way that New Jersey is not full of fat people, which is why calling his opponent fat worked out well.<\/p>\n
And then there’s the one everyone’s watching, though the main fireworks have already gone off.\u00c2\u00a0 New York Special Election District 23.\u00c2\u00a0 It’s a good one.\u00c2\u00a0 The Republican — Dede Scozzafava — has jumped out in the fasce of Conservative Party (that’s the state party started about in the 50s or 60s by the Buckleys)’s embrace by the teaparty and Club for Growth and Sarah Palins and Dick Armeys and Glenn Becks and others.\u00c2\u00a0 If at first blush, the Democratic candidate’s chgance lay in riding to a division of the two Republicans, in its final weekend it becomes a contest to stake a claim to the “moderate” Republican voters — and really, both candidates kind of have an equal claim.\u00c2\u00a0 Proceed with caution, Democrats, for the possible new “Moderate” Democratic Congress-critter.\u00c2\u00a0 It is worth exploring the manner Democrats might end up painting themselves into a corner in bids of Respectability.\u00c2\u00a0 A longer campaign against Hoffman should exploit Conservative Party Hoffman’s very real weaknesses — what, Dick Armey is parading around with the carpet-bagging candidate proclaiming the local issues anc concerns “Parachoial” — but, unfortunately, things are so very truncated.<\/p>\n
The post-moretems will be full of Republicans and conservatives puffing about the resurgence of the Republican Party and Conservative Movement, and liberals and Democrats calling this as a sign of party fracturing and moving out of victory-range for 2012.\u00c2\u00a0 Weirdly enough, I tend to think both and neither assessment look accurate.\u00c2\u00a0 I will suggest that the Democratic Party in Florida should proceed with the assumption that Marc Rubio will beat Charlie Crist in the Republican nomination fight.\u00c2\u00a0 This is interesting, in that Crist is unbeatable in a general election and Rubio — well, he might be unbeatable if we assume a somewhat peculiar midterm election voting pool skewed by Florida’s skewerence toward the aged, and might also not be.<\/p>\n
There has to be other elections worth paying attention to.\u00c2\u00a0 Hill Valley, California has Goldie Wilson III up for an election to replace his father.\u00c2\u00a0 “Progress is His Middle Name.”<\/p>\n
None of this adds up to a hill of beans.\u00c2\u00a0 Gay marriage will either edge forward slightly or edge forward slightly less slightly.\u00c2\u00a0 The House composition will be composed of either one more Democrat of a type you don’t necessarily like all that much or it will have one more Republican that’ll align with the right-wing fringe of the congressional coalition.\u00c2\u00a0 I’d call a rematch for a year from now.\u00c2\u00a0 Virginia will continue its truly counter-cyclical trending, and conveniently Republicans are claiming this as the one true national message election.\u00c2\u00a0 But this all leaves New Jersey as the one election that will determine a national message for the 2009 elections of one type or other.\u00c2\u00a0 A message to be taken with grains of salts.\u00c2\u00a0 The pressure’s on New Jersey to provide a verdict.\u00c2\u00a0 In fact, the verdict for the entire Obama Administration.\u00c2\u00a0 And, no I don’t beleive that last statement.<\/p>\n