We are getting to a point where we can count a number of Senators who will probably cease to be in the Senate, nonvoluntarily, in 2011.\u00c2\u00a0 Jim Bunning in Kentucky.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Maybe Chris Dodd in Connecticut.\u00c2\u00a0 Perhaps I’m misjudging him, and the DSCC head is giving a game face with respect to Illinois, but Roland Burris in Illinois.\u00c2\u00a0 And Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n
The thing about Arlen Specter is that, rolling down the poll numbers, I doubt he’s strayed from where he was in 2004.\u00c2\u00a0 The Republican numbers are marginally smaller due to there being fewer Republicans and the Democratic numbers are marginally bigger due to there being more Democrats, the slimming effect with the former happens as the wavering changeovers are less “solid” to the current cause of “Republicanism” and the new adherents to “the Democracy” more inclined to support an Arlen Specter.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 If he were to survive a primary challenge, he would be in good shape in the General election, as he was in 2004.\u00c2\u00a0 And yet…<\/p>\n
In 2004, he barely survived that Republican Primary Challenge — one buttressed by more “Republican Moderates” (ie: non Limbaugh listeners).\u00c2\u00a0 The National Review threw their backing behind Pat Toomey and cover featured Specter as “The Senate’s Worst Republican”.\u00c2\u00a0 But the Republican Party machine pushed Specter through — Rick Santorum had considerable appeal with this base and he stumped for him, George Bush still was a reasonably popular political figure\u00c2\u00a0with a decent chance of winning the state and he stumped for Specter.\u00c2\u00a0 And they had to do so — Specter was almost assuredly going to win re-election; Toomey was assuredly going to lose re-election.\u00c2\u00a0 But today, The National Review audience (and\u00c2\u00a0“Movement” voters)\u00c2\u00a0makes up a larger proportion of the Republican electorate, this part of the party is incensed that Specter is in that vulnerable position of being the Deal Maker to get to 60 votes in the Senate, and there is no Bush and Santorum to hitch one’s ride to — or new equivalent.\u00c2\u00a0 Hence, Toomey beats Specter by double digits.<\/p>\n
Labor offered Specter a salvo for the general election — lay down their arms if he cast what would be that magical vote #60 for the Employee Free Choice Act, which would have further damaged his reputation amongst his conservative base.\u00c2\u00a0 I suspect that deed is already cast — he was in favor of it when he was an irrelevant vote and out of sight of political danger — not something the Republican voters can forget about, particularly given that his rationale for casting it aside (“In these tough economic times…”)\u00c2\u00a0isn’t an about face.\u00c2\u00a0 Also, it’s not going to absolve him of his orginal Obama Era Sin in being\u00c2\u00a0a key figure in\u00c2\u00a0that “Gang of 4” (the 2 Maine Senators, the Nebraska “Democrat”, and he) in deal-making the Stimulus Bill.<\/p>\n
He’s spurned Democratic offers for a party switch, something which would not necessitate too much massaging\u00c2\u00a0 of positioning (though it would take a bit) to get into Evan Bayh’s “Democratic” burgeoning Caucus of Difference Splitting Calculators (or, indeed, back to that “Gang of 4”) — an act which would steer him straight to re-election.\u00c2\u00a0 This, I guess, is a sign of steadfast commitment to Party Republican — he wishes to “Save the party from becoming a purely regional Southern Party”.\u00c2\u00a0 And it looks like he will now have to do so from the vantage point of an ex-Senator.<\/p>\n
For a Senator\u00c2\u00a0in Arlen Specter’s position, after spurning as unpalatible any available paths to survival, I suggest the only real choice is to assess your committments in matters of policy, and stick to it as a Legacy Builder, leaving smiling when the Democratic Process has thrown you ashunder.\u00c2\u00a0 But in Specter’s case, and with respect to EFCA, the problem is I don’t know really what Specter’s position is — which means he could be doing just that and I’d never know for sure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
We are getting to a point where we can count a number of Senators who will probably cease to be in the Senate, nonvoluntarily, in 2011.\u00c2\u00a0 Jim Bunning in Kentucky.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0Maybe Chris Dodd in Connecticut.\u00c2\u00a0 Perhaps I’m misjudging him, and the DSCC head is giving a game face with respect to Illinois, but Roland Burris in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3660"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3660\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3662,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3660\/revisions\/3662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}