I remember these as being Days of a rough slug for the John Kerry campaign in 2004, and a look back on this blog from four years’ ago reveals some examination of clear structural difficulties that Kerry had — point one:\u00c2\u00a0 there was no Democratic Party in Ohio in 2004 — Bush was escorted around the state by a slew of statewide elected Republicans; Kerry was escorted by former Astronaut and Senator John Glenn.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 The good news for Obama here:\u00c2\u00a0 In the Great Mid-term shake-up of 2006, Ohio was\u00c2\u00a0one of the\u00c2\u00a0definite epicenters.\u00c2\u00a0 This cannot be discounted, and the difference between a “ground game” of out-of-state liberal interest groups versus a “ground game” of neighbors also cannot be under-estimated.<\/p>\n
So we Take note of this day in 2004<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0— Kerry:\u00c2\u00a0 238; Bush: 291.\u00c2\u00a0 Now, compare it with this, the ebb of the Obama campaign:\u00c2\u00a0 Obama: 268; McCain: 270 (270 is the magic number).\u00c2\u00a0 (HERE)<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 I do not entirely like the method of this thing — the most recent poll number is always used for a state, no matter its clear and obvious “outlier” status, no matter it be a poll released by one of the parties of a “fly by night variety”.\u00c2\u00a0 (DFM research had a poll which showed Obama winning North Dakota’s 3 votes, somewhat improbably.\u00c2\u00a0 Rasmussen\u00c2\u00a0came in with one that showed McCain easily winning them.\u00c2\u00a0 Rasmussen is well known; I don’t know what DFM is.)\u00c2\u00a0 Also, statistically insignificant margin of error poll results from different polls result in quasi-drastically different results:\u00c2\u00a0 look back a few days and you will see:\u00c2\u00a0 Obama: 281, McCain: 230, Ties: 27<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 But, nonetheless, as I recall from watching the graph in 2004, it does provide a general sense of what is going on in the horse-race.<\/p>\n And we are down to much the same group of states that we were down to in 2000 and 2004, with the addition\u00c2\u00a0of Indiana.\u00c2\u00a0 And… that’s about it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I remember these as being Days of a rough slug for the John Kerry campaign in 2004, and a look back on this blog from four years’ ago reveals some examination of clear structural difficulties that Kerry had — point one:\u00c2\u00a0 there was no Democratic Party in Ohio in 2004 — Bush was escorted around […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3081\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}