{"id":2809,"date":"2008-03-17T20:15:17","date_gmt":"2008-03-18T03:15:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/2008\/03\/17\/steve-novick-versus-jeff-merkley-take-2-and-some-issues\/"},"modified":"2008-03-17T20:18:52","modified_gmt":"2008-03-18T03:18:52","slug":"steve-novick-versus-jeff-merkley-take-2-and-some-issues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/2008\/03\/17\/steve-novick-versus-jeff-merkley-take-2-and-some-issues\/","title":{"rendered":"Steve Novick versus Jeff Merkley, take 2, and some issues."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>#1: \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Oregon isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t all that blue\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 Speaking of Feingold, neither is Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p>#2:\u00c2\u00a0 I hate the word \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Progressive\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, but it is something I just have to learn to live with.<\/p>\n<p>#3:\u00c2\u00a0 A red flag went up recently.\u00c2\u00a0 A reference to Jeff Merkley as being \u00e2\u20ac\u0153well, he is what he is \u00e2\u20ac\u201d Jeff Merkley\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201d \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Someone who will not excite anyone\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 Which reminds me of several Democratic Presidential nominees.\u00c2\u00a0 In terms of a Senate bid, I suspect this would work well in an open election, but against a reasonably entrenched well financed incumbent, a challenger somehow needs to break down that barrier and garner an emotional response.\u00c2\u00a0 It is one liability that off-sets Novick as being to the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Hard Left\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 Though, maybe just barely&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>#4:\u00c2\u00a0 Mind you, Peter Defazio was a better bet.\u00c2\u00a0 As was John Kitzhaber.\u00c2\u00a0 After that, things are a little dicey, methinks.<\/p>\n<p>#5:\u00c2\u00a0 Speaking of Kitzhaber\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/p>\n<p>#6:\u00c2\u00a0 The DSCC \u00e2\u20ac\u201d credit them and fault them accordingly.\u00c2\u00a0 Clearly a tapping of Bob Casey, Jr \u00e2\u20ac\u201d against the desires of any number of liber\u00e2\u20ac\u201c er \u00e2\u20ac\u201d Progressive Interest groups was wise in taking down Santorum in Pennsylvania.\u00c2\u00a0 For that matter, the same with Harold Ford, Jr in Tennessee \u00e2\u20ac\u201d pegged forever as the magical Democrat #51, who ultimately lost.\u00c2\u00a0 But then there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Montana, where they tapped a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153John Morrison\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, figuring his DLC centrist credentials would sway this red state.\u00c2\u00a0 Squinting at the primary from afar, I could sware that I saw no way Morrison could win, and I could see how Tester, preferable to probably your tastes as well mine, might.<\/p>\n<p>#7: I suppose it won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t do my \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Democratic Party Unity\u00e2\u20ac\u009d card to suggest that I had a secret desire to see Ford lose in 2006, though through the entire Summer I hoped Jim Webb in Virginia would supplant Ford for the elusive \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Democrat #51\u00e2\u20ac\u00b3, and that if I were in Nebraska in 2008 and Bob Kerrey had been slated for the Democratic side, I would vote for the Republican (never mind he is the Democrats\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 best shot in deepest Republican state).\u00c2\u00a0 The last one is made easier by the numerics of the Senate \u00e2\u20ac\u201d Democrats will add some seats in the next election, and probably fall below the magical mark of 60.<\/p>\n<p>#8:\u00c2\u00a0 Ralph Nader.\u00c2\u00a0 So, what was your opinion of the man circa 1998, and if it was somewhat negative, could you have stomached a positive opinion? And is it okay to be ambivalent about a Dick Morris lead Bill Clinton, circa 1996?<\/p>\n<p>If I may suggest something regarding Al Gore.   (Deep breath).  So, his poll numbers were sagging and clearly behind W.  throughout the first half of 2000, somewhat sputtering along.  At the convention he settled in and focused his campaign, and thus was born &#8220;The People Versus the Powerful&#8221;.  With this as his focus, his poll numbers stabilized and the race reached the &#8220;dead heat&#8221; stasis it was from there on to the election.  The post-convention bounce was not illusionary.  This campaign theme seems clearly formed in large part to handle the threat to his left, meaning Nader forced Gore to his focus point.<\/p>\n<p>Granted, after that, Nader was the Spoiler everyone remembers him as.  Until he reappeared in 2004, at which point he sent a quick shock through the Democrats&#8217; spines, but turned out irrelevant.  As he iss now.  Though, frankly, he was only a spoiler in Florida (clear on the eve of the election) and New Hampshire (only obvious in retrospect).  Nader voters in every other state are free from blame from saving us from, um&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The 2008 presidential campaign of Joseph Lieberman.<\/p>\n<p>#8A:  Historical corrolary:  Hencry Wallace&#8217;s campaign aided the 1948 election of Harry S Truman.  This is not a precise match, as part of Wallace&#8217;s aiding came through good old fashioned red-baiting of an easily<br \/>\nbaited (backed by the Soviet Union, after all) Wallace, but the political campaign Truman&#8217;s advisor forged for him was to forge him to a specific liberal positioning to run against the platitudous Dewey, a firm position necessary to get through to the electorate, the coordinates determined in large part from his left plank in Wallace.<\/p>\n<p>#9:  Election Campaign logic tends to amuse me.  A primary contest can present a candidate who is said to be dividing the Party&#8217;s base.  Never mind that Steve Novick was there first.<\/p>\n<p>#10:  Wait a week and I may well argure for Jeff Merkley.  Or Charity Nebbie, for that matter. Candy Neville.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>#1: \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Oregon isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t all that blue\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 Speaking of Feingold, neither is Wisconsin. #2:\u00c2\u00a0 I hate the word \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Progressive\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, but it is something I just have to learn to live with. #3:\u00c2\u00a0 A red flag went up recently.\u00c2\u00a0 A reference to Jeff Merkley as being \u00e2\u20ac\u0153well, he is what he is \u00e2\u20ac\u201d Jeff Merkley\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201d \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Someone [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2809\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.struat.com\/election\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}