nate silver’s inaccuracy rate

I don’t suppose anyone noticed that Nate Silver got two predictions — or statistical forecasts if you will — wrong.  In the midst of the playoffs, he had the Seahawks winning the thing.  Then, after the big game was settled, he had the 49ers over the Ravens.

Of course, sports aren’t political contests.  There are more unknown variables in a sporting contest than in a political race — as some critics of Silver believe, and it’s probably true, his forecast accuracy rates aren’t “that great” — lots of gerrymandered one sided districts and the like, and polls show the way things are heading.  In sports — well, everyone’s getting paid to try to win.

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